The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots will take to the field at Levi’s Stadium to contest Super Bowl LX, marking the climax of a curious NFL season that few experts were able to predict.
The two teams had NFL lines to win the Super Bowl ranging from +6000 to +8000 before the season began, meaning it is the Super Bowl with the longest odds (combined for both teams) in the league’s history.
But just how common is it for true underdogs to go to the Super Bowl? And when there, how often do they win? There are numerous examples, as is the case with other sports, but some of the Super Bowl’s unlikely underdog stories have interesting backstories.
Rams’ win was an all-timer
The most famous example is the Greatest Show on Turf, i.e., the victory of the St Louis Rams over the Tennessee Titans at Super Bowl XXXIV. The Titans could be considered underdogs, with futures odds marked at +3000, but it is, of course, the Rams that most people remember. Odds were as big as 150/1 with some books before the season began. The Rams’ season is considered one of the biggest shocks in sports history.
There are other examples of both teams making the Super Bowl with fairly long odds, although nothing that compares to this season. The Steelers meeting the Cardinals in 2008, for instance, had the Cardinals at +5000 before the season began. The Steelers (+1800) weren’t total underdogs before the season began, and boasted a squad with plenty of talent, but it was still a statistically unlikely Super Bowl.
As you might expect, it is much more common to see one longshot in the Super Bowl playing a highly favored team than it is to find a pair of underdogs both competing, and NFL history is littered with such cases. In fact, the three consecutive seasons of Super Bowls from 1980-1982 were won by teams with odds of +3500 (Oakland), +5000 (San Francisco) and Washington (+3500). No period in history has had consecutive underdog wins quite like.
The Patriots’ dynasty kicked off as underdogs
Often, underdogs reaching and winning the Super Bowl kick off an era of success. Such was the case with the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXVI. The Pats were 60/1 shots at the beginning of that season and, well, you know the rest, as a certain Tom Brady came to prominence and delivered the greatest era of success in New England’s history.
Obviously, when it comes to the Super Bowl itself, the teams no longer feel like underdogs. That certainly is the case with this season’s game, but there are plenty of examples of teams being highly unfavored once they get there. The starkest example is back in 1969 with Super Bowl III, which is widely considered the biggest underdog upset in the Super Bowl game. The New York Jets were an 18-point underdog going up against the Baltimore Colts, before going on to win 16-7.
Most fans won’t care about the preseason odds of the Seahawks and Patriots when they clash at Super Bowl LX. Yet, it marks the culmination of an extraordinary season, one unique in NFL history. Two underdogs that no longer feel like they merit the description.