Falling behind 3–1 in a best-of-seven playoff series is usually a death sentence — but not always. According to historical data, NHL teams are nearly twice as likely as their NBA counterparts to mount a dramatic comeback.
By the Numbers:
- NHL: 32 of 351 teams (9.1%) have successfully rallied from a 3–1 deficit to win the series.
- NBA: Just 13 of 290 teams (4.5%) have done the same.
Why the Difference?
Several factors may explain the gap:
- Hockey’s unpredictability: A hot goaltender or lucky bounce can shift momentum more easily in the NHL.
- Lower scoring: Fewer goals per game mean tighter matchups and greater variance.
- Depth matters: NHL teams often rely on all four lines, giving underdogs more paths to win.
Meanwhile, in the NBA, stars dominate, and talent gaps are harder to overcome over the course of a series. Once a team gets behind 3–1, they’re often outmatched in firepower — and history reflects that.
Bottom Line
While both leagues make 3–1 comebacks rare, NHL fans have a little more reason to believe. In either sport, pulling off the impossible is part of what makes playoff drama so compelling.
