Santiago Leon and Ray Sherrod preview 2024 NFL Championship Sunday
Contributors
Santiago Leon – @sleon
Ray Sherrod – @ray3473
Falcons to hire Rams DC Raheem Morris as head coach
The Atlanta Falcons plan to hire Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris as their next head coach, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Los Angeles allowed 337.9 yards and 22.2 points per contest with 15 takeaways under Morris in 2023. The team also accumulated 41 sacks despite using just 20.78% of its cap space on the defense, according to Spotrac. Only the Las Vegas Raiders (19.62%) and Tennessee Titans (15.54%) spent less on their respective defenses.
Morris’ unit in Los Angeles garnered league attention: Defensive tackle Aaron Donald was a first-team All-Pro selection for the eighth time, and fellow interior lineman Kobie Turner was named a Defensive Rookie of the Year finalist on Thursday. The latter totaled nine sacks, eight tackles for loss, and 16 quarterback hits this season.
Panthers hiring Bucs’ Canales as head coach
The Carolina Panthers are closing in on a deal with Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales to make him their new head coach, sources told NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.
Canales’ work with quarterback Baker Mayfield during his first year as an NFL offensive coordinator stood out to the Panthers, per Rapoport. Mayfield threw for 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions while completing 64.3% of his passes this season. The yardage, touchdown, and completion percentage marks all represent career highs for the former No. 1 overall pick.
Overall, Tampa Bay’s offense averaged 313 yards and 20.5 points per game in 2023. Those marks ranked 23rd and 20th, respectively.
Lamar, Allen among 5 MVP contenders
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen headline the finalists for NFL MVP, the Associated Press revealed Thursday.
Dallas Cowboys passer Dak Prescott, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, and 49ers signal-caller Brock Purdy round out the finalists for the accolade.
Chargers hire Harbaugh as new coach
The Los Angeles Chargers are hiring Jim Harbaugh as their next head coach, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
The 60-year-old led Michigan, his alma mater, to a CFP Championship earlier this month. Harbaugh spent nine seasons at the helm of the Wolverines.
Harbaugh previously served as the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers from 2011 to 2014. He led the NFC West franchise to a 44-19-1 record, as well as three consecutive NFC Championship Game appearances (2011-13). The Niners made it to Super Bowl XLVII but fell short to the Baltimore Ravens and Harbaugh’s brother, John.
Fangio, Dolphins part ways, onto Eagles
The Miami Dolphins and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio have agreed to part ways after one season together, the team announced Wednesday.
“When we assessed the season, it became apparent that this was the best path forward for all parties involved,” head coach Mike McDaniel said in a statement.
The Philadelphia Eagles are now targeting Fangio for their defensive coordinator vacancy and are expected to iron out a deal, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports.
Titans hire Bengals OC Callahan as head coach
The Tennessee Titans plan to hire Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan as their new head coach, reports NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero.
NFL Championship Sunday Preview
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW
The AFC Championship is Sunday in Baltimore, where the top-seeded Ravens will host the defending champion Chiefs, who seem to have a standing reservation for this game, Jeff writes.
The one stat you need to know: Baltimore is the fourth team since the 1970 merger to have a first-team All-Pro QB and the No. 1 scoring defense. The previous three all won the Super Bowl (1972 Dolphins, 1978 Steelers, 1996 Packers).
QB matchup: Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are the first former MVPs under 30 to meet in the playoffs, and assuming Jackson wins this year’s award, they’ll have claimed four of the past six. Mahomes leads their all-time series, 3-1, but this will be their first postseason matchup.
Mahomes: 4,183 pass yards, 27 TD, 14 INT, 67.2% CMP, 92.6 RTG; 389 rush yards
Jackson: 3,678 pass yards, 24 TD, 7 INT, 67.2% CMP, 102.7 RTG; 821 rush yards, 5 TD
Key to the game: Which defense will blink first? While the Ravens are a perennial defensive power, including a historic* first-place ranking this season, Kansas City’s run to six straight AFC title games has been fueled by its offense — until this year.
Flipping the script: Through Mahomes’ first five years as a starter, the Chiefs’ offense never ranked worse than sixth and their defense never ranked better than seventh. But this season, they had the second-best defense and 15th-best offense.
Sacks could be a difference maker: Baltimore and Kansas City finished 1-2 in sacks, but Mahomes is far better at avoiding sacks (second-best sack rate) than Jackson (23rd).
Coaching matchup: Andy Reid improved to 5-0 in the playoffs against his ex-assistants after last week’s win over Sean McDermott, and he’ll put that record to the test again on Sunday: John Harbaugh spent a decade under Reid in Philly before becoming Baltimore’s head coach in 2008.
Notes:
Chasing greatness: Travis Kelce (145 career postseason receptions) needs seven catches to pass Jerry Rice (151) for the most in postseason history.
Overachieving underdog: Baltimore is favored (-3.5), but Mahomes is 9-1-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career, and 8-3 straight up, including wins in both such playoff games (last year’s Super Bowl and last week against the Bills).
Injury report: Chiefs All-Pro G Joe Thuney (pec) is unlikely to play; Ravens TE Mark Andrews (ankle) is expected to return for the first time since Week 11; Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey (calf), Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed (calf) and Chiefs RB Isaiah Pacheco (ankle/toe) are questionable.
*Baltimore’s historic defense: The Ravens became the first team in NFL history to lead the league in points allowed (16.5 per game), sacks (60) and takeaways (31).
🏈 49ERS VS. LIONS
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW
The NFC Championship is Sunday in San Francisco, where the Super Bowl favorite 49ers will host the Lions, the underdog darling of these playoffs, Jeff writes.
The one stat you need to know: Detroit is on an NFL-record 11-game road losing streak in the playoffs, with its last such victory coming in 1957. That win came against none other than the 49ers, and a week later the Lions won the NFL Championship. Could history repeat itself?
QB matchup: No. 1 pick Jared Goff defeated fellow No. 1 picks Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield to captain the Lions to their first NFC title game in over 30 years. His next challenge? Defeating Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, the last pick in the 2022 draft.
Goff: 4,575 pass yards, 30 TD, 12 INT, 67.3% CMP, 97.9 RTG; 21 rush yards, 2 TD
Purdy: 4,280 pass yards, 31 TD, 11 INT, 69.4% CMP, 113.0 RTG; 144 rush yards, 2 TD
Key to the game: Detroit’s best shot at pulling off the upset is sticking to the run, utilizing its best strength against San Francisco’s only real weakness.
Running wild: The Lions have the fourth-most efficient rushing offense by DVOA*, while the 49ers’ rushing defense is ranked 15th. Detroit also has the No. 1 rushing defense, which could help contain Christian McCaffrey and San Francisco’s No. 2 rushing offense.
Thunder and lightning: Detroit was the only team in the league with two players who scored at least 10 rushing TDs in battering ram David Montgomery (13) and speed demon Jahmyr Gibbs (10).
Coaching matchup: Dan Campbell is acing his playoff debut, while Kyle Shanahan has a chance to pass a legend: With a win, he’ll improve to 8-3 in the playoffs (.727), eclipsing Hall of Famer Bill Walsh’s mark (.714; 10-4) for the best postseason winning percentage in 49ers franchise history.
Notes:
Dome warriors: The Lions have played outside just once in their past 12 games, with all home games and four of five road contests played in a dome (or under a retractable roof). They lost that one game (at Chicago); how will they fare outside on Sunday?
Title droughts: This is the 49ers’ seventh NFC Championship appearance since 2012, but they’re still seeking their first Super Bowl title since 1995. The Lions, meanwhile, have never won a Super Bowl.
Injury report: 49ers star WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder) is back at practice but questionable; Lions Pro-Bowl C Frank Ragnow (ankle, toe, knee, back) is expected to play through injuries.
*DVOA: Defense-adjusted Value Over Average measures a team’s efficiency in each facet of the game by comparing every play to a league-average based on situation and opponent.
Santiago Leon is the Founder and CEO of the Sports Cast. He covers NFL, NBA, and world soccer. He’s also founder of sleon productions, which he specializes in technology and serves clients with solutions to make their business grow.
