As the 2025–26 Premier League season approaches, clubs like Leeds United, Burnley, and Sunderland prepare for an uphill battle. Recently promoted from the Championship, these teams are stepping into a financial arena vastly tilted in favor of the established 17 clubs. With stricter financial regulations and a glaring disparity in spending power, the question being raised across English football is this: Do newly promoted clubs even stand a chance of surviving in the Premier League anymore?
A Tale of Two Strategies
According to football finance expert Kieran Maguire, clubs promoted to the Premier League in recent years have followed two distinct paths:
- Conservative Planning – Clubs like Sheffield United, Burnley (in a prior promotion), and Luton Town structured their budgets with relegation in mind. These teams maintained the lowest wage bills and minimal transfer spending, often hoping that finishing 17th would be a miraculous success.
- Aggressive Spending – By contrast, Ipswich Town and Southampton splashed over £100 million last season in hopes of building a squad strong enough to compete. Yet even that amount was below the Premier League average of £140 million in squad investment, illustrating the immense cost of merely staying afloat.
Financial Rules and the Survival Gap
The Premier League’s financial ecosystem heavily favors its incumbents. Established clubs are permitted to lose up to £105 million over a rolling three-year period, while newly promoted teams are often capped at £61 million. This disparity makes it almost impossible for promoted sides to compete on a level playing field.
Maguire argues that the rules, effectively written and maintained by Premier League members, are not designed to benefit incoming Championship clubs. “Why would Premier League clubs vote to change rules that would make it easier for others to take their place?” he noted.
Nottingham Forest provides a rare case study of a promoted team willing to gamble. They knowingly breached spending rules to build a Premier League-ready squad, accepted a points deduction, but still survived—and now stand as a mid-table example of risk paying off. But that approach is not without serious consequences and requires precise execution.
Recruitment, Coaching, and a Bit of Luck
With financial restrictions firmly in place, newly promoted clubs must focus on areas they can control: smart recruitment, tactical discipline, and pragmatic coaching.
Maguire emphasizes the danger of trying to “play like a Premier League team” before actually becoming one. Promoted clubs who try intricate build-up play or high-press systems often get punished harshly. Grinding out results, using the loan market effectively, and targeting undervalued players could be a more realistic path to survival.
Can the System Change?
When asked whether reforms could bring about a fairer playing field, the answer was blunt: not likely. For financial reforms to be enacted, 14 of the 20 Premier League clubs must agree—a tough sell for teams who benefit from keeping the barrier to entry high.
The example of Wrexham, bankrolled by wealthy owners and rapidly climbing the pyramid, raises a new kind of debate. Can a cash-rich consortium outspend its way from non-league to Premier League viability? While it’s possible in League Two or League One, once a club hits the Championship, Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules tighten significantly. Even well-funded teams face an average weekly loss of £400,000.
So, Can They Survive?
When asked if Leeds, Burnley, or Sunderland can stay up next season, Maguire didn’t rule it out. With the right blend of pragmatism, resourcefulness, and perhaps a little fortune, one or two could buck the trend. But it’s a tall order. The rich are getting richer, and the path for newcomers grows steeper every year.
As it stands, the Premier League remains a closed shop where wealth, more than merit, often determines who stays and who goes. Until financial rules evolve—or a promoted club beats the odds with strategy and savvy—survival will remain the exception, not the rule.