With the 2025 NFL regular season nearing its conclusion, the NFL MVP race has taken a dramatic turn. Sportsbooks have installed Drake Maye as a commanding favorite, while former frontrunner Matthew Stafford now faces an uphill climb. Here’s a full breakdown of the latest 2025 NFL MVP odds, key storylines, and what to watch in Week 18.
Drake Maye Leads 2025 NFL MVP Odds (-400)
Drake Maye has seized firm control of the MVP race, sitting at -400 odds, which translates to an implied 80% chance of winning the award.
Maye’s odds are stronger than Matthew Stafford ever reached during the MVP watch period this season. Coming off a dominant stretch — including a five-touchdown performance — Maye has positioned himself as the clear frontrunner heading into the final week.
Barring an unexpected collapse, the MVP is essentially Maye’s award to lose. If he delivers a solid, representative showing against the Dolphins on Sunday, voters are expected to reward him with the league’s highest individual honor.
Matthew Stafford Still Alive, But Needs a Miracle (+300)
Matthew Stafford opened last week as the MVP favorite, but a three-interception performance in a loss to the Falcons dramatically shifted the landscape.
Now priced at +300, Stafford must overcome multiple obstacles:
- A massive performance in Week 18
- Drake Maye underperforming against Miami
- Uncertainty about how much Stafford will even play
Rams head coach Sean McVay has indicated some starters may play, but Los Angeles has historically rested key players when only playoff seeding is at stake. If Stafford does see the field, he likely needs his best game of the season to regain momentum with MVP voters.
Longshots: MVP Voting, Not MVP Wins
Several quarterbacks remain on the board, but realistically only for down-ballot consideration.
Trevor Lawrence & Caleb Williams (+18000)
- Trevor Lawrence
- Caleb Williams
- Implied MVP odds: 0.55%
If either quarterback helps secure the No. 2 seed in their conference, it could boost their placement on MVP ballots — likely in the third-to-fifth range.
Justin Herbert & Josh Allen (+30000)
- Justin Herbert
- Josh Allen
- Implied MVP odds: 0.33%
Allen, the reigning MVP, could still remind voters of his ceiling with a superhero-level performance, but a repeat win is extremely unlikely given current narratives.
Sam Darnold & Bo Nix (+40000)
- Sam Darnold
- Bo Nix
- Implied MVP odds: 0.25%
Both quarterbacks face long odds due to the credit given to their defenses and coaching staffs, but a dominant Week 18 performance paired with a top conference seed could sneak them onto ballots.
Final Outlook: MVP Race Nearly Decided
As Week 18 approaches, the 2025 NFL MVP race is no longer a toss-up. Drake Maye has built a commanding lead, and only a dramatic late-season twist would prevent him from claiming the award.
Stafford remains the lone realistic challenger, while the rest of the field is battling for respect, recognition, and ballot placement, not the trophy itself.
Bettors, fans, and voters alike will be watching closely this weekend — but all signs point to Drake Maye lifting the MVP hardware when the season ends.