Major League Baseball (MLB) could soon become the next major U.S. sports league to formally embrace prediction markets, according to Commissioner Rob Manfred. Speaking at the conclusion of MLB’s owners meetings in Palm Beach, Florida, Manfred confirmed the league is actively evaluating potential partnerships with prediction market platforms.
The move would signal a significant shift in MLB’s approach to emerging wagering-adjacent platforms—and could reshape how fans interact with the sport.
What Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts based on the outcome of future events—such as who will win a game, division, or championship. While they may resemble sports betting on the surface, they operate under a different regulatory framework.
Unlike traditional sports betting, which is regulated state-by-state, prediction markets fall under federal oversight, primarily through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That distinction was a central topic during MLB’s recent ownership meetings.
Manfred explained that owners were briefed on:
- How prediction markets differ from traditional sportsbooks
- Why MLB might consider formal agreements
- How partnerships could help protect league integrity
“The regulatory framework [is] very different,” Manfred noted, emphasizing the federal structure compared to state-regulated sports betting.
Why Would MLB Consider a Deal?
MLB’s interest is largely centered on integrity protections.
By forming official partnerships with prediction platforms, the league could potentially:
- Gain access to data monitoring
- Establish safeguards against suspicious activity
- Ensure contractual compliance standards
- Protect the integrity of on-field competition
This approach mirrors how leagues eventually embraced traditional sports betting after years of opposition.
MLB’s Current Policy on Players and Prediction Markets
Despite the league’s openness to partnerships, MLB has already made clear that players are prohibited from participating in baseball-related prediction markets.
Late last season, the league issued a memo titled “Re: Baseball Related Prediction Markets,” instructing players not to risk money on any baseball-related outcomes. Participation was framed as a violation of longstanding gambling policies.
Importantly, even if MLB signs a league-level deal with a prediction market, the ban on player participation would remain in place.
Other Leagues Are Moving First
MLB is not alone in evaluating this emerging space.
NHL and MLS Already In
The National Hockey League (NHL) has already taken formal steps, partnering with both Kalshi and Polymarket. Individual NHL franchises have also secured separate agreements.
Meanwhile, Major League Soccer (MLS) signed a deal with Polymarket, signaling growing acceptance among professional leagues.
NFL and NBA Taking a Wait-and-See Approach
The National Football League has acknowledged the innovation in prediction markets but continues to raise regulatory questions. NFL EVP Jeff Miller described the marketplace as “dynamic” and innovative but noted unresolved concerns.
The National Basketball Association has also sought regulatory clarity. An NBA executive previously requested specific provisions from the CFTC to mitigate integrity risks. Notably, founders of Kalshi and Polymarket are scheduled to speak at the NBA All-Star Tech Summit, reflecting the league’s growing interest in the space.
A Major Shift for MLB?
If MLB proceeds with a formal prediction market partnership, it would represent one of the most notable evolutions in the league’s gambling-related policies in recent years.
Much like the path professional leagues took with legalized sports betting—initial resistance followed by structured partnerships—prediction markets could follow a similar trajectory.
For now, MLB appears to be in the evaluation phase. But with the NHL and MLS already on board, and the NFL and NBA cautiously monitoring developments, baseball may not be far behind in formally entering the prediction market space.
What It Means for Fans
If MLB moves forward:
- Fans could see officially sanctioned event contracts tied to MLB outcomes
- The league could implement stronger monitoring tools
- Prediction platforms could gain mainstream legitimacy
The biggest question remains regulatory clarity and long-term integrity protections. As prediction markets continue to grow in popularity—and controversy—MLB’s decision could influence the broader sports industry.
For now, all eyes are on Commissioner Rob Manfred and MLB’s next move.