The road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America just got clearer for European nations. On November 20, 2025, UEFA conducted the playoff draw for the final four European spots, creating four thrilling paths that will decide who joins the 12 already-qualified teams.
Here’s everything you need to know about the 2026 World Cup European playoff draw, including the matchups, format, dates, and expert predictions.
UEFA Playoff Paths – Full Draw (November 2025)
Path A
- Northern Ireland vs Italy (semi-final)
- Wales vs Bosnia & Herzegovina (semi-final)
- Final: Winner SF1 vs Winner SF2
Path B
- Poland vs Estonia
- Ukraine vs Sweden
Path C
- Turkey vs Luxembourg
- Slovenia vs Iceland
Path D
- Denmark vs Albania
- Serbia vs Finland
When Are the Playoffs?
- Semi-finals: March 26, 2026
- Finals: March 31, 2026
All matches are single-legged, with the higher-seeded team (based on UEFA Nations League rankings) hosting the semi-final.
Who Are the Favorites?
According to FIFA rankings, recent form, and betting odds (as of November 2025), the clear favorites to claim the four remaining spots are:
- Italy (Path A) – Unbeaten in regular qualifying, 4-time world champions
- Poland (Path B) – Strong Nations League performance, led by Robert Lewandowski
- Turkey (Path C) – Dominant in their group, excellent home record under Vincenzo Montella
- Denmark (Path D) – Consistent performers, reached Euro 2024 semi-finals
Biggest Talking Points from the Draw
- Italy handed the toughest semi-final opponent in Northern Ireland – a team known for giant-killing (remember their win over Spain in 2006 qualifying?)
- Wales vs Bosnia is a repeat of the Euro 2024 playoff final (Wales won on penalties)
- Ukraine vs Sweden is being called the “match of the round” – two attacking sides with passionate support
- Serbia vs Finland and Slovenia vs Iceland are seen as the most open ties
Which Teams Have Already Qualified Directly?
Germany, Spain, Portugal, France, England, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Croatia, Scotland, and Norway secured automatic qualification by winning their groups.
2026 World Cup European Playoff Predictions (November 2025)
- Path A winner: Italy
- Path B winner: Poland
- Path C winner: Turkey
- Path D winner: Denmark
That would mean Italy, Poland, Turkey, and Denmark join the 12 direct qualifiers for a total of 16 European teams at the expanded 48-team World Cup in USA, Canada, and Mexico.
Key Dates to Remember
- March 26, 2026 – Playoff semi-finals
- March 31, 2026 – Playoff finals
- June–July 2026 – FIFA World Cup 2026
The European playoff paths are set, and football fans are already counting down to what promises to be a dramatic finish to World Cup qualifying.
Which underdog do you think has the best chance of causing an upset? Let us know in the comments!