In this episode of the Tyler Turner Show, Tyler reviews the Pac 12/Big 10 and preview the 2021 Team Talent Formula.
Tyler Turner – @TurnerCast
Tyler Turner 0:31
Hey guys, welcome to the sports cast this is the Tyler shirk Turner show, today’s date, January 18 2021. Please check us out on the sports cast dotnet also check us out on Twitter sports cast one, check us out on Periscope check us out on YouTube. Also check us out on iTunes and leave us review. Hi guys today I have well last week first I got all this stuff in front of me. Oh. Last week I was did not do well. And the reason why was because there was this thing called the national championship game and I thought it probably wasn’t the best night to do a show because to be gay wouldn’t be listening. I also didn’t think I did didn’t have a dash I was gonna I wasn’t really looking at the game. I wasn’t gonna miss the game. I probably could have missed the game and was not what I thought it was going to be. I’ve done a lot of state was better than that. Um, granted, Alabama was great team. They’re just terrific. I think two straight years you’ve seen two teams in LSU 2019 2020 championship and in Alabama 2,020th 2021 championship USL two teams that were just very good good offensively. good defensively, great quarterback play, just prolific receivers. Um, that brings up a point you can have big time receivers these days and college football back in the day I was like man you need to guys the trenches you need to have defense wins championships you need to guys that you have to pass rusher I mean, you still do need all those things. But man if you can have some guys like a devante Smith, I got jomar chase Jordan Jefferson come to the guys have come through college football last two years. If you can have those dudes making plays SCADA it’s kind of tough to beat him. And now that being said, USC has had great receivers for decade plus and they’ve not really been very good because they’ve been struggling in every other aspect of it mainly coaching. I’m sorry, there’s a little phone Hold on one second. My dishwasher running in my house and then was noise. I’m back while I was talking about it was just not a very it was not the I mean, it was a great game. It was a trip to 24 I’m trying to remember the score off at Ohio State. Definitely couldn’t stop them. offensively. They were just not consistent at moving the ball had trouble running on a consistent basis. Justin fields did not have his best game and to be honest with you when I look at Justin fields career in college football he was a value guy just like Trevor Lawrence number one player Trevor Lawrence number two player Justin fields. And there’s a lot I like about Justin fields. I think he’s a good kid. He’s a great athlete. He has a great arm. He’s He’s good size. He has all the like physical and talent intangibles, but his college career. Georgia didn’t play a ton, but we did play. I didn’t think he was very consistent, but he wasn’t used that great. So I was like, Okay, so then a sophomore year. He looked great most of the year. Towards the end of the year. I know he got injured, but didn’t think he was playing that good against Penn State or Michigan. They get injured. I forgot he was Michigan. Oh, didn’t play against Penn State. I think he had a pretty good game against Michigan. But then he got injured, wasn’t very good against Wisconsin. I know he was injured, but then he also wasn’t good against Clemson he had a at the end of the game. He was one of the 30 interception. And this year, I know it was a wonky COVID season and I know that it man it was tough for teams to really be on point especially with their stops and starts But no, it was very good against Indiana three interceptions. He wasn’t very good against Northwestern a couple interceptions the first half, it wasn’t very good against Alabama, great performance against Clemson. I mean he had a great force against Penn State around a year. But as a whole he was a little consistency is something that When he’s going off the NFL after three collegiate seasons, and the and I would say NFL teams probably a little bit a little bit concerned about the overall consistency of his play. And okay, so last year
the whole draft
season I was really in the draft season probably more than any other year because Oregon dogs had Dustin Herbert and I had to hear about Justin Herbert and his see how his play regressed and, and and I was like, man, sometimes maybe you just kind of gotta go with when the guy is six foot six 240 pounds has a rocket arms a good athlete is a good student, maybe have to say maybe he just needs better coaching. Maybe he just needs a better team. Maybe he just needs to know that our system for his abilities. Maybe you just have to say when a guy has that many other good things. He’s smart, he’s big, he’s a good arm. He’s good athlete, man. It’s just one of those things that you just got to say the tape does show some inconsistency there’s some things to worry about there but he has so much other intangibles he also upgraded to combine it with the senior day look great at his pro day in high character guy so no red flags except for an inconsistent Phil well he ended up one third of the quarterbacks there were six players so very terrific. What do you do just never broke pretty much every rookie NFL record touchdowns, completions, yards per play. think the only thing he didn’t get was total yards and I think he was second all time we basically broke the record and we’re working here and all that and I think moving forward I think Herbert will be the best of that class bro still could come off an injury. I began to have enough time but I don’t think that too I think too is limited physically and I always did so that’s why when it was between two and Herbert The biggest thing was to his injury history because everything else the play the accuracy tools unquestionably the results stuff. The statistical consistencies everyone’s like to have is a no brainer that’s why I heard from every skater from every major sporting and draft prognosticator and side I just it’s too late It’s too late to you have to go to unless injuries external to injuries I understand that what’s what ended up being drafted to add and I’m like put there’s no it’s more than that. Who’s he’s bigger guy Herbert better arm Herbert, better athletes herber the guy I mean a 4.1 student a guy with a hot very like a 38 wonderlic score or two tools was very average when it came down south so I was like Herbert he has every physical intangible every talent. So I mean, and you have this injury question mark with a guy that’s already small a guy that I think lacked it lacked those elite character characteristics those intangibles from a physical perspective arm strength, athleticism size all that. I was like, No, I think you should go with Herbert and we have a learning event. So yeah, Krishna, my boy but I saw her but I saw his in consistencies. I saw a guy that was not always on a consistent game by game play by play base basis. Terrific player in college he wasn’t he there was some times where he was just off and it’s sometimes you go off for long periods. And it was kind of odd because he had so much else going for him that I to this day can’t explain it because he didn’t want that gave me like he had one really poor game against New England. That the guy was one of the top 10 best quarterbacks in the NFL but that’s where he ever entered the greatest team. He did punch injured o lineman terrible defense coach ends up getting fired. So we have a great team, but he were terrific. So I just saw you You heard I hear too many things going over then then too. And then this year, obviously, who knows what happens but I was not impressed. I thought everything that I thought about him I didn’t use that great athlete didn’t look like a great athlete this year. Didn’t they get a great arm? I didn’t. I thought that things were so open. He was going to struggle because then he wouldn’t trust his arm strength while I didn’t even throw the ball and in bench because he would fail the football down the field. He was ultimate game manager on a team that was good. Bad. Five is good now. They need some weapons of offense and then a little bit of offensive line stuff. But overall that was a much better team. He plays for a much better team than then Herbert did yet look like considerably worse. Um, but anyways, back to I’m saying we’ll feel I don’t want to do that. Again. I don’t want to go down that road when a guy has so much going for him just because they’re staying consistent. Now there’s one caveat. Ohio State was a much better team than Oregon. Oregon is good. They’re my
team their top five team they won the Rose Bowl. But Ohio State was a second most senior college football last year their college football playoffs so he played on a better team so inconsistency with a better team would raise even a little more concern. He also is not like his physical Li like he’s not as big as Herbert. He also has an injury history. He hasn’t a good arm he’s he’s has a kind of elite arm talent of Herbert. So I don’t think he’s quite as talented from the quarterback position and he felt the same inconsistency on a better team. Why am I going into this law model I because I made that draft Zach Wilson I love Zach Wilson. Now I did play against great competition but he is a very he has controllable all over the field from every angle he’s terrific on the run he’s he’s very he is very good anticipation he’s just very skilled to begin with he Lee receivers anticipation throws throws across the field ability to get outside the pocket he can do it inside the pocket. He’s good scrambling abilities. Good afternoon is pretty decent sized guy. The I don’t think there’s a talk like we’re tutorials like injury prone and undersized. Not a great arm though. Zack Wilson is a great arm. He’s a good athlete. He’s not undersized. Um, there would be competition he played against And now I’d probably be the one that carry out that I’ve raised in fields favor significantly. It’ll be an interesting debate. But I think there’s a better I think Wilson has a better argument going ahead of fields into a data over her. And I know that to put up a ridiculous numbers, but look at the team he played for.
wide receivers are going to be first round draft picks. One of them won a Heisman Trophy, the running back, he grew up but he played with two different first round running backs. He’s played with three or four first round, offensive lineman. He’s played with the most talented roster on paper in college football. I mean, that has to be taken a little bit more seriously. Just saying, BYU hasn’t been really any good until Zach Wilson came along. Now they didn’t play against good talent. But against good teams, great teams, great talent, but they dominated everyone that played against. It was good, very good coast Carolina team with three days preparation. Remember that you would add an undefeated BYU team with that happen. I just
think I could
see fewer people that have been lost and above field and I wouldn’t have a question. I have more. I had more of a question with the Herbert or two over Herbert. Despite the fact I know that Herbert I just thought he had so much more things going from from just a physical aspect that I just thought you couldn’t take for granted. I mean, it wasn’t and thing was he didn’t have character problems. He was smart. And so he had a lot even off the field stuff that was very good. I was just inconsistent tape and I understand the question, but I didn’t do it. Honestly. I said it then I got it. A couple of podcasts. I just thought up going into the draft, and people bash Herbert and I’m like, whatever. He’s gonna end up being the best quarterback probably of the group. And he’s just one year, but I think he will. I think he is I think he was a lot more talented than the Joe Burrell. But I understood the burl, since a kid and super talented guy who had just one of the best college football seasons I’ve ever seen. So I understood bro, but I feel like her brands have a better NFL career. For sure. That’s my opinion on Justin fields. I still think he’s a top 10 pick. I just made me draft. Zach Wilson in front of them wouldn’t be shocked. I like Zach Wilson. He just does a lot kind of reminds me of Aaron Rodgers. Um, we’ll see. Rogers playing that. Our Pac Man By the way, Rogers played for the NFC Championship. So not much more to say about that. I guess to mention the big 10 because I’m going to touch on like three or four different subjects. Next go on with the big 10 um, it was just you The season was what it was the most games that were played, I believe, I think a couple one, maybe one or two teams got nine games and I know Penn State did believe Rutgers did. But everyone else it was as low as I believe and I’m doff top my head up Maryland got only five games in, I know there’s five to nine was the range, it seems as low as five, as many as nine. I’m better than that, well, Pac 12 is four to seven. So on the big ticket, some more games. In fact, the average is maybe like six or seven, I forgot what it was, we got a team that got to play for a national title. So that alone was kind of worth it, you know, you got to get your team in national game, that’s awesome experience, even if they did lose by significant margin. I’m coming back next year, I’m going to do a deep dive. First of all, doing my team talent formula, we briefly touched on that. And then I should go into it a little bit to tout formula is basically I explain the data from recruiting rankings. So whatever their final recruiting ranking is going into college by two to four, seven composite, I then do this point system at the higher the way you play the more points so basically, I six points but it goes six, and then 5.55 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.51. And then I point seven 5.5 0.2 5.1 0.05. So basically, highest rated guys, five stars by far get the most points, top 54 stars, the second highest group of points, top 103rd, top 150 to 200, top 250. And then by the time it gets pretty close, when it gets to the three star range, obviously the higher the freestyle a little more there. The wire, point total I give them I was going to I’ve changed it up a couple times I’ve done it two years in a row, I did a teen town formula in 2019, I did a two town formula in 2020. Total. And now I’m 21 I’ve changed it every year, this is my third year I changed it, I was gonna need to get more specific and do every number. So if a player had a 99 rating, they’re given this much 9897. But I decided it just takes a little too much time. So I like doing it in a range. So it’s like top 50 Top 100 I just go to what normally it is of a players. Point 9550 that’s top 103.5 points for those guys. And I go like in ranges like 9394, the same 9192 the same 8992 same 8788. So so on so forth. Anyways, I’m going to go and go into the data I’ll probably being exploited give you an I’m a good dude. That REASON WHY CAN’T haven’t been able to finalize it. Is there still more rankings for the 2021 class on their spinal rankings by 247 Sports by ESPN and by rivals? And also there’s another signing day? It’s in two weeks from today. No, wait, that’s all right. Two weeks from
Wednesday, sorry, two weeks from Wednesdays and 16 days is the final Signing Day. So there’s other guys are gonna sign I think about 80% of sign but there’s still about 20% of prep prep and Judo junior college guys to sign. So that is something to look out for. And I’m excited to accelerate that. And pretty much all guys have declared for the draft pick today was the deadline. So you kind of have that information out there. And then you also have the transferable that’s just just everyday people. Oh my goodness and highlighted guys guys that were like top 55 stars that like the transfer and other programs. So that’s just sits daily, just keep an eye on transfer portal. It’s fun to watch. In the big 10 Ohio State’s gonna be the best team from a baseline perspective. Again, I am gonna go this year I’m gonna go a little deeper. I really want to see how good I can know every single team especially the big 10 Pac 12. And probably I could be with other conferences, but those two conferences, how good I can know like, what is the returning production on offense? What is retrieved production defense, what is the baseline talent? What is the returning starters on offense and defense and and see how and what was what did what did they rank if you know they return all 11 starters but with a last ranked offense in the big 10 then Okay, well you’ve returned a lot of guys that weren’t very good. So I really go and do it, how much tally reback how much production you’re bringing back how much talent you have on the roster. And then overall, how good that talent is coming back compared to what its results were in this last year. Well the more difficult because it just a weird season. I haven’t done one team so far I haven’t and it’s Oregon. That I have a good idea of I’ve not done any one I’ve done Ohio State a little bit. Ohio State is because then watch all the players and hotel players while they get let’s get NFL Draft. Ohio State had several guys go in the draft Justin fields hit went to the draft make Meyer Went to the draft of Wyatt Davis went to the draft, Trey sermons went to the draft on defense Tommy togi I went to the draft Brett bear brownie with the draft Shawn Wade went to the draft and then other guys like Hilliard tuff Borland Pete Warner like guys like that, that could have come back for an extra year, but they just chose to just exhaust eligibility and, and head to the draft. So Ohio State is only bringing back maybe 11 did they get crizal on a mat, which I was shocked about Chris Abramoff he was a first round pick probably but he came back so I don’t know he’s in my head. It’s his choice. I don’t think he’s improved his draft stock because one he’s gonna be playing a new quarterback might not be as good um, chances are we’ll be we’ll be as experienced fields and number two I think a lot is kind of is what he is he’s tall quick, through extremely fast wide receiver that that all sides kind of like a lean, long lean really lean kind of a number two number three guy guy that you know I could see Justin Jefferson type of player who’s just Justin Justin had a remarkable years that’s pretty good person but some someone like that I don’t know like stefon Diggs you saw a guy a deep threat get down the field great hands good ball skill and so I kind of thought he I don’t think he’s gonna ever because he’s not like he’s not like an imposing guy from physical standpoint like size and just a guy that you’d take being like a top top pick and any any Goodspeed but he’s not like blazer but you don’t have to be a blazer you could Jabbar Chase and devonta Smith, they’re not your pal successful they are. But I just I don’t know if he’s gonna go that much higher. But whenever he’s coming back, I was honestly, like 11 or 12 guys, which isn’t great. They normally when when you return that that’s because they’re great. But Ohio State goes on reloads like no one else. They had the number two classes cycle they’d number five class last cycle, they are going to probably I haven’t done the baseline but I believe honestly is probably gonna be about third when it comes to baseline talent for rosters across college football. And the unquestioned number one is just gonna be young. They’re gonna have a lot of young talented players. And one caveat to add in a normal year Ohio State were played. While they went to the national game, they would have played 15 games, they would have probably had
789 blowouts. That means the second stringers a third stringers got in they got game reps. So kids that are redshirt freshmen true freshmen would have gotten those game reps, which would have helped them for the next year. Because of COVID. And because of the cancellations or the Ohio State, they only played eight games, which is pretty much half the amount of games that they’d normally play. They also did not have that many blowouts they only have like two or three blowouts. So the players that like really good guys I don’t guys in the roster like gee Scott, Julian Fleming and and I can’t think of any a couple others on the hand, they normally would have played didn’t get to play much. They really didn’t get any reps because they just wasn’t the games. There wasn’t the opportunities that might affect the transition. I mentioned receivers and they’re springing back a lot of good receivers I don’t know. But the back of quarterbacks didn’t get much backup time I think shrouds they just shot my gun in a couple games. We didn’t get much although linemen replacing some I don’t know how much a backup or line but I don’t think they got a ton I think they did a game that they would have as Michigan State because of the COVID and and northwesterners Hey guys, how’s COVID but for the most part, I don’t think they got quite as much as you would like. So there could be some learning curves between Oregon second season. And I tell you what, I’m not gonna I’m probably not going to record I’m going to pick a plastic because it’s in Ohio State. It’s a very tough date. But if that game was in Oregon, if you were to switch like this year, Ohio State was going to Oregon, I was gonna pick Ohio State because I just thought Oregon so a new quarterback in Ohio State was half Justin fields and and all that talent every Indian I had Ohio State beat and preseason my number one I just I even Oregon was getting pretty good hype. They’re going to be a top 10 team. I just thought even at Alton, which is extremely difficult, more difficult places to play. I think they’ve only lost one time on American crystal ball in three years. And it’s difficult to beat them and I still think a lot of it was going to be a bad game. If you switched yours. And in maybe Who knows? You never know the schedule is so weird and we still have COVID in there. Maybe the same thing now so I don’t know if that was the case I don’t pay for Oregon. What if a game isn’t awesome because I think New quarterback, new offensive line, a lot of new defensive players, I think I think already brings back the Oregon so since I’m terrible I say Oregon brings back 97% of its production on offense. The offense was number 20 and offensive efficiency in the country they’re the second best offense far as efficiency total efficiency meaning yards per play yards rushing past all that they do is the question marks to the quarterback position but as long as they can get it ironed out they’re gonna bring back some experience guys they just were a little way consistent towards the year mainly Tyler shot quarterback but a lot of experience to skill position wide receiver right back different back everyone offensive line every back everyone. So they actually bring back a lot more production than Ohio State and Oregon is going to have a top 10 roster as far as baseline talent. So talent roster with more production at home against a team that probably had no publicly will have more baseline talent, but last production less experienced on the world. New quarterback, I would I would take I’ll take Oregon this upcoming year. But that’s not what it’s not the case. Going to Ohio State. I just think that home field advantage it’s tough place to play. I just don’t think I’m gonna pick Oregon. I think I think it’s gonna be a pretty good game though. I think it’s gonna be I think it’s gonna be a decent game. Because of all things outlined, I just think Ohio State’s figured out a way to win home. Plenty wise Oh, ah, who else? The big 10 Santa’s big town? Well, Michigan. Here we’re tuned for the return I would have to look at the roster a little bit more. I actually think they returned most of their people on both sides of the ball. Obviously they have a new defensive coordinator where the quarterback position who knows what’s gonna happen to that? That that’s kind of up in the air k McNamara is a Joe Milton, is it. JJ McCarthy, the five star comes in. I mean, I think that he’s gonna have a legitimate chance that
they recruited pretty well. They have some pretty pretty dynamic wide receivers. They did have one of their top running backs that carbonate into the transfer portal today. And that’s another thing with Michigan’s currently they’re having a lot of guys enter the portal. They’ve just had some attrition problems. Obviously the normal early draft entries that they had not a great recruiting class couple years ago that I think hurt them a little bit. Their talent has just been not up to par as the first few years with with horrible first few years. I sort of go back to 417 talent deposit the first several years he had a top 10 roster at Michigan last year according to my formula and and composite Michigan was about 17 I haven’t done my formally Yep, I think they’re gonna be somewhere around there 15 1617 this year, it’s still good roster but not find that definitely not the talent level he was bringing in. It’s definitely taken a step back so I’m horrible I was gonna have to figure out a way especially played against um, I’m Ohio State and they just hope they’re using a better year next year they just were not a very good team this year. had trouble stopping obviously they had trouble that defensive backfield really difficult to get it up big place. Um, I will say I would say Michigan is a team that will I don’t know I’d have to look at the roster. They did three questions. Penn State actually brings back most of the production um, but once again a team that obviously started off bad they got better as the year came on. They have lost a lot of their better players you know, opted out like Micah Parsons and pat fire move. That guy like a shocker Tony go to the NFL. I’m trying to think of another guy that had Jerry Brown ended up having to metal full retire. They have lost several decent players, the portal there, this year’s class was not up to par it was outside the top 20 last year wasn’t bad, but maybe not as good as the one a couple years ago. I think their talent levels taking a dip, they were up there near the top 10. It’s an opt out they fell out of it did like 11 or 12. In my team talent formula this year, they’re probably gonna be more like in the 1516 range. So they’re another team that I think is taking Little bit setback like it was a talent kinda like Michigan, I think Michigan and Penn State had really had galvanized the classes and brought in some really talented players guys like Micah Parsons, Justin shorter, actually had done a really good workout I left out Florida. But they brought it brought in some really good guys been in and it it, I would say as a whole lot of those guys have now left and they have not necessarily replaced them with equal talent. So Penn State someone, I’d have to look at more and have to look at their efficiency. But I think they may be taking a little bit of a step back. I have trouble getting a step back and you’re like, well, Michigan was tuned for Penn State was four and five your takes up? Well, I mean, what they’d been at, like Penn State had been at a pretty consistent level, too. They want a big 10 championship, they went to the Fiesta Bowl, they went to the Cotton Bowl, they had been at that level, the weird year screwed up, I don’t think they go back to that level. I need to more like an eight and 14 have to look deeper at the numbers. Same with Michigan, Michigan was like 10 and three baby Peach Bowl and the Citrus Bowl and and I maybe get back that night I maybe like Michigan’s team a little better than Penn State. If they can get that quarterback position. Just maybe I like it a little bit better. But I have to look a little deeper at the numbers to come to that conclusion. Just there’s a possibility. So So I’ve looked at it enough. The rest of teams haven’t looked enough at the other teams, Indiana obviously had a great year. Their attorney at a guy like jack Tuttle, Mike, if he can be ready in time for his ACL, I believe they’re turned back most of the receiver talent. There is there is a ceiling. And it’s not that high for Indiana and they had a good year this year. But you saw their loss Ole Miss in the bowl game. And Ole Miss was an average sec team. So there is a ceiling with Indiana just based upon the talent they bring in. And but then a very good year. Now the West, Wisconsin’s a team that obviously under achieve this year ended all the COVID issues that happen if they did not live up to expectations. Their team for you back for back they have some really talented offensive linemen, they bring back the running backs even better guy they bring back most of their defensive players. They will be better next year Wisconsin’s a team that I can consistently say
they rebound pretty good. I think they have a good enough player team and they have good enough players. I’m happy to look deep enough numbers and know that they are better than what they were this year. They also are going to have I haven’t finished but they’re gonna have a top 25 roster this year. Wisconsin’s never had in the team talent composite error of six years of succession they’ve never had a top 25 roster. Their rosters have been in the 30 to 40 range. They were pretty pretty good. They had top 25 class last year top 20 classes here. they’ve signed a five star and back to back classes. I mean they’ve done this with three star offensive linemen they actually have to have two five cyber offensive linemen another four star offensive lineman top 103 different top 100 guys um they I think Rambo will be better I he showed good early in the season shows Miss can see later show better at the end at the ballgame. Pro till bale trophy comfortable better. That’s a team I feel pretty confident saying they’re gonna bounce back and they’re gonna have a pretty decent season. I’m gonna look at the schedule see how exactly it plays out. The task is just the biggest anomaly to me. They’ve had the they’re gonna probably again in three years dumber form. We’re gonna have the best roster in the big 10. West St. Kitts composite would say same thing. Nebraska has had the best roster in the West year in year out. They have only have one winning season it’s six years. They’re winning seasons in the three years that Scott frost, he signed off to a class this year, top 20 last year top 20 The year before initial class was top 25 he’s had terrible attrition. He said guys are one dry Robinson the best running backs lock guy transferred out left Kentucky JD Spielman was the best receiver the year before left to TCU um, some good some defensive recruits that were consensus for us our blue chip guys headed out here Garrett gray but couldn’t get out of Florida. transferred out immediately. keyshawn Johnson out of Miami transferred out Amelie Julian Fleming a wide receiver he transferred out blue chip wide receiver transfer now to me like he’s had a lot of like not just attrition, but he’s lost guys that were high recruits productive players. We’ve reached Washington, our kickoff team. I mean, it’s it’s been just it’s been like this vicious cycle of attrition and not living up to expectation and inconsistent play the offense one week look good, the defensive look bad and the next week vice versa. They’re just not a consistent team I don’t know they’re gonna probably have the best roster for the third straight year. My formula and I would not pick them. I think I’m pretty good. They bring enough good players back they’re always pretty consistent North Washington haven’t liked them enough. They had a good year. But remember watching that game they can win the West be one and 11 win the West advantage of a bad year in the West Division overall. I don’t really have much more to say about the big 10 I’m going to look more at the numbers see who has most returned production who look at some of the efficiencies see how efficient the production is kind of back but offhand you have to take Ohio State just based upon pure talent and just how they’ve dominated these for so many years and and you probably have taken for the title but Wisconsin’s a darcars they’re going to be better. They return a lot. They’re recruiting better, they always rebound off of maybe like a little bit of an off season scottson will be better next year they will be better and I feel pretty confident that it’d be my number two team as of right now. I think they could win 10 plus games as well. So it’s up at 12 so much love me to just rips on you. Oh man dates it did not look good. The Bulls Oregon was not was was not good. I think I talked about that my previous podcast was just not a good performance. Um, specifically Oregon. what to look for our Oregon’s recruited extremely well for years under Mr. crystal ball to top 15 and to top 10 classes, he says can finish off I don’t think he’s gonna get top five he ended up in the top six or seven years 868 range. I think they probably will end up with a third straight year the top class the PAC 12 The good news is, like I said they returned 97% of their production on offense when I had the production passing passing touchdowns, receiving receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, rushing attempts, rushing touchdown rushing yards 97% of their production they return I believe 10 of 11 starters on offense that’s great.
And this is a number 21 offense This is if you the first four games this season this offensive really good the last three games they did not look as good. They 17 they scored 17 as cow 31 against USC but they had wasn’t one touchdown like a defense special. No, no it wasn’t. But it was like short field kind of stuff. And then they had 17 against I would say but as a whole when they played the three best defense they they were they just just it was a external wall over too much. And that’s probably the one question is quarterback Tyler sharp was was just inconsistent. Discipline Israel in the year still made mistakes didn’t later in the year he kept to make mistakes was even doing really good things. Anthony Brown came in I thought it was pretty good but he was not the starter you got beat now. So who knows it did ask the question but bring back all the top receivers come back to probably two of the top returning rushers in the PAC 12 turn on offensive line. It was a first year but several of them made all conference first second or honorable mention. I think three or four of the five starters did so there is enough and there’s talented guys there telling Caruso bringing in challenge groups that wide receiver rate and overall the offenses returned a lot of production. They recruited very well. On that side of the ball basically was dominant this year’s recruiting class. Already on offense I feel pretty darn confident right now it’s gonna be pretty good team trust Joe Morehead I think that they will be the second most efficient offense in the PAC 12 this year I think SP plus had them as the number one offense in the PAC 12. Um, I know when it goes to other metrics like total yards are in the top three scoring, they’re in the top three. So I think as long as they can get a good play out of quarterback position, not great. Great play, they could have often said college football. It was a good player he did number one offense in the PAC 12 to sort of for the good they returned 78% of the production once again production. how I do it is tackles. sacks, passes, defended interceptions, forced fumbles, fumble recoveries. That’s how I did it. They returned 78% of that production, they returned seven of 11 starters. They were Probably one of the best edge guys that’s the backdrop in the country and gave on tibideaux it returned freshman all American Noah so former five star they return all Pac 12 quarterback McHale right and also all Pac 12 Nickelback Jamal hill so those four players good and bad other guys that started they have other guys that are coming in I think there is some question marks question mark of how good is the rest of the line good pressure Mark what the other guys that played linebacker position they weren’t great this year safety position wasn’t great. Guys in step up you’re gonna bring in someone new that they lost or defensive coordinator Andy abalos. To You took a starting job at so good so sorry to get started all right. Forget head coaching job at Boise State new defensive coordinator and the defense that he ended up 33rd deficiency was like six best in the PAC 12 I think they were bottom half of the conference in rush defense. They did not cause a ton of havoc plays sarich sacks and and quarterback hurries and tackles for loss. They were like seventh or eighth in the conference. I’d have to look at the numbers a little closer. But overall the art defense was just not great. They had good games with good against USC, the good and second half against Iowa State. They had bad games USC UCLA ran for 200 plus yards on them. Oregon State ran for 200 plots Oregon State scored a 38 points on them. 400 plus yards I gave up to Washington State, same to Stanford. Without in in in games like gets UCLA Stanford they’re playing as backup quarterbacks. I didn’t think the agents are great as yours didn’t didn’t think it was a great performance I thought didn’t consistently get after the quarterback and data consistently stopped the run. I didn’t think they I think their overall drive efficiency I think was like 51 at one college football. They just gave up long drives. They didn’t get off the field to get their third down efficiency was not great on defense. They didn’t force enough turnovers. They were literally negative nine in the turnover department. And I think it was only two different games, even forced turnovers. And the other five games they did force one turnover. So overall, I just was not that impressed a loser defensive coordinator. They actually lose more production on that side of the ball. They recruited good last year, five star Justin flow was injured five star Dante Manny was injured.
Steve Stevens, a former four star who was a guy that was going to come in and compete he was injured last year so the three guys that probably would have been not productive even that’s just true freshmen and sophomore, but were injured. And that made made it where they had to play a couple walk ons and probably some not ideal positions. And then a lot of the guys on defense are going to be older there’s gonna be like Oregon, the big thing with them was there 21% of the roster what was upperclassmen? There 79% of the scouts are scholarship athletes on the team roster after there’s different number, but of the scholarship guys 85 scholarship guys in the top 21% were upperclassmen nets. I think it was one of the youngest rosters in college football. A lot of those guys that are going to where they’re going to get a bump up I think next year they’re going to be 30 plus percent like 30 3035 more normal more towards the mean of what a normal roster is scholarship athletes upperclassmen underclassmen ratio is and I think a lot of those guys that are going to be older because I looked at the 2d I was doing a 2d with the defense and defense is going to be older next year like a lot of juniors couple seniors sophomores so it’s going to be a more experienced unit. That’s a plus. They do Rebeck production, but they have to be there next year. Hopefully a full offseason. I’m just getting new system getting the ground running. The defense does the diplayed better than it was this year. The offense The only question is quarterback outside a quarterback between the play calling the production you’re bringing back and the overall talent I know they have in the roster over there I have pretty good faith the dolphins were pretty good next year I think it’s gonna be pretty dynamic offense I think they’re going to score quite a few points and they can get good what really good play out a quarterback position is straight up will be one of the better offenses in the country. I’m a little worried about the defense a little more. Um, who else in the PAC 12 Washington returns a lot Washington turns returns pretty much all their starters, Taylor played four games, but Washington actually returns if you pro football focus at the top performers. On per per position. They did like the eight top performers for each position. So like eight quarterbacks, eight running backs, eight wide receivers Eight tight ends. So go down the stream. Washington actually the most Oregon second Washington the most top performers on a permanent basis. They returned back some very good offensive linemen, they’re gonna have the best offensive line they have a very good rusher and zTf on defense fuzu was the highest rated any defensive player you played linebacker vicini, his name is on high screen linebacker in the PAC 12. Trent McDuffie is a really good player. He’s an all Pac 12 corner. Kyler Murray is a great athlete, he plays a safety kind of nickel position. I think they’re going to be pretty good next year. I would question their offense. I didn’t take full great I didn’t see a ton of other quarterback position. The wide receiver position that I had has not really given much last couple years. And I think there’s a little bit of a limit to the running back but they’re returning everyone. So everyone returns. They only played four games, but they return everyone and they bring back law production. I think Washington will be pretty good. I think it’d be pretty good. Great. No, but pretty good. Yes. I’m Stanford loses a lot and I’m going to do a deep dive into everyone. They lose a quarterback who lose their best to best pass catchers. They lose a couple key defensive players who lose their one of their best two of their best offensive lineman all Pac 12 do Dolman foster serral quarterback he said Davis Mills, simi field goal was to possibly the best wide receiver in the conference. He left so they are losing just a lot. They haven’t recruited great i they have had a top 25 roster every year and normally the rosters fall in the top 20 this year they might be barely inside the top 45 um, they might be like 25 their rosters kind of going down the guys who are better are going to be a lot of underclassmen that think they’re gonna be playing. Probably more than you would like, guys from like last year’s class like redshirt freshmen some sophomores. I don’t think it’s I I think Shawn’s gonna have a little bit of a
job in this and I do we’re not bad this year and they lost that first came to Oregon they didn’t have Davis Mills but they went on their form one had a close loss Colorado one the rest of the games and I thought they will play a pretty decent team. One of the veteran conceives the PAC 12 I don’t think it’d be very good next year as far as then who else in the world watch and see what turns a lot they look played four games they didn’t look great, but there are a lot We’ll see. Oregon State loses some good guys Johnson running back who was what was possibly the best running back in the PAC 12 he’s gone but they were to the quarterback or the production more they don’t have a lot of talent they returned a decent amount of players turns good offensive linemen missing on account cow I think last couple guys in their noting that only played four games there are over a roster talents going to be a little there’s a little bit of a dearth there also the top performers for for pro football focus returning day we’re second least amount returning of top performers. A little bit of a talent dearth over there have a pretty good top 25 recruiting class this year but as I think it’s gonna be a little bit of a struggle for Kyle didn’t get a ton of reps didn’t look great when they play lost some key guys a guy like cam Brier and buyer on defense stuff so I spent a little bit of a drop off of them. But when you go on the other side, now you’ll see is getting a lot of love when it comes to the some of the way too early. I see the blog on there the number one Pac 12 team it’s usually Denver Oregon Washington flipped in there a little bit. pick us up a little overrated I think USC loses some pretty good players. They lost their best offensive tackle one of the best tackles in college football actually and the best one in the PAC 12 Elijah very Tucker, on those two of the best wide receivers in the back 12 on Ross a brown and Tyler Vaughn’s. They lose Marquis step one of the mesh runningbacks Club went to the transfer portal. on defense they lose all Pac 12 offensive lineman Marlin 12 Lupu poor guy a two who is a former five star went to the portal talent no longer the PAC 12 Player of the Year, all American he headed to the NFL, Elijah Griffin one of the best corners. I think they lose quite a bit. I don’t know exactly how much They bring back but they lose they lost the baby bring back six or so guys if you bring back Keane fulvous who was pretty consistent this year. I was not impressed with his sophomore year. They progress great receivers drink London brew McCoy and but then they have some offensive line I did Delve is why as a whole didn’t look great they lost their best offensive lineman, so that has to be worrisome. The defensive line wasn’t great. They lost his best defensive linemen. Defensive backfield look pretty good but they lost the best guy so USC is a team that i would i would definitely keep your eye on as possibly being someone if they all of a sudden fish six and six would shock me and that could be the end of the hot seat every year. The fan base of wanted him out he’s about it. I think it could be who could I pick coming out of this off? I was gonna say returns quite bad. They only played four games this year. They didn’t look bad and actually if you go for an overall efficiency they were pretty good they should have won the USC USC game UCLA game was a close game and they return pretty much everyone go why guys would have been seniors decide to come back they only played four games I would come back to 40 is just not enough six seven a I can see four games so enough four or five games. Um You told me good now you told the tragedy a tie Jordan dine on also their starting quarterback cameras and got injured the first game of the season. Then the backup Jake Bentley didn’t play well he transferred out so they have to replace quarterback they have to replace the running back. And so the offense once again probably will have to kind of take a step back because of that. And any movement they made Ford’s might not be as good. But defensively did they are better as the year went on. I hate the defense will be pretty good next year. caraway and wise it’s good defense Morgan stats galleys, one of our defensive coordinators. I think Utah will be better. And UCLA UCLA
put brings back during Trump’s drama settle his flaws and all he says that a dynamic player Britton brown the back of running back comes back he was the guy that was good one two punch with Demetrius Felton on the river excellent. The better offensive linemen the Brubeck enough good defensive players. I could see dissolving interesting off the top my head I’ll take Arizona State. I think the returning James Daniels returning enough skilled talent and returning some key players on defense that I thought were pretty good in those four games. I think the 910 win team possibly not a very hard schedule, I probably say nine. But I could see that being a nine three big Pac 12 South champion and playing a team like Oregon for the title. But I would say Oregon and Washington if I had to say who do I think the two best scenes, I think it’ll be Oregon and Washington. There. Oregon has a number one best baseline talent, they’re gonna have the most talented roster, they’re also bringing back a lot of production. Like I said, 97% on offense 78%. on defense, I would have to add all some numbers together. But overall, the returning a good portion like 10 stars and offense 17 of 22 starters. And in Washington, even more starters, even more than production and bring back I lean Oregon is a little more talented roster. I think also Oregon has the ability just to put up more points on offense. I don’t trust Washington as well, I just watched the defense a little more. I thought they were overall better this year. And I think that they’ve recruited very well on that side of the wall there. They’re not losing enough defensive coordinator, Oregon debt. So I trust that but I think a keep score a few more points, anything get him. But that’s my kind of initial take to California dropping it out. I’ve done some rough drafts, I kind of got an idea of who’s going to be up and who’s going to be down across college football. I talked about the big 10. I talked about the PAC 12 specifically talk about them. I think the big 10 in the PAC 12 are actually going to be pretty well represented the top 25 I think there’s going to be actually five teams in both conferences, which is is a step off. So actually both conferences from a baseline perspective, I think are gonna get a little stronger. Wisconsin’s gonna be in the top 25 this year, they haven’t been on I believe UCLA. They’ve done very good in the portal that it’s settled blue chip guys. They’re also the favorite Dylan’s AP carbonate. Who is a former top 50 guy from Michigan. If they land him they’re gonna have landed like for blue chip guys in the portal. They also are borderline top 25 class right now, all Wisconsin, like I said, If done really well, last few cycles. So those two rosters are better than you got like Oregon, USC, Oregon’s going to be the only top 10 team but that’s that’s the doc Oregon’s gonna have their best roster from a talent perspective. The team’s handle composite era they have never had a top 10 roster. Actually, most of the rosters just last season their top 15. Most of the rosters were outside the top 15. But Mario Cristobal remarkably turned that roster around roster that was 25th. His first year 17th a second year 12 quarter the composite his third year, it will probably be a top 10 roster this year, I’ll probably say in that eight to nine range. So just remarkable transformation. There have gotten a lot better. And that’s why they haven’t got Milwaukee Oregon that they did last year or even the year before going into Herbert’s senior year or even after the Rose Bowl appearance. They were a top 10 Team COVID app and they ended up being a lot tied but they were most early pulls their top 10 team to turnover year they’re just 11 they’re just outside the top 10 this year, they’re probably gonna be like a 15 that’s kind of what I’m getting the vibe and it all boils down to probably right about 15. But I actually think this team, if they can get the quarterback position, right, the experience will bring back the talent on the roster. I think that this could be the team that actually is the best team on American football and they play Ohio State and that’s tough but they have the talent they have the people with good quarterback play. You have to have good quarterback play subpar quarterback play can lose you several games. The quarterback position is just I mean, NFL it’s everything college football it’s I mean you look at all the national champions. So let’s go through them. Let’s go to seven National Games cardale Jones is the one outlier. 1000 outlier, but you go no I’m sorry Jay croaker Okay, think of that.
But the national
game deshaun Watson that was even a top 10 roster. He was a Heisman finalist. He did. The game didn’t the next year. Um, it was the Shawn Watson Heisman violence. When’s the good title game, then the next year to hotel Villa, who ended up being a Heisman finalist and one of the most prolific cause mobile quarterbacks of all time. Then the next year Trevor Lawrence, he’s been number one pick in the Draft. Then the next year Joe burrow Heisman Trophy winner number one pick in the draft then the next year Matt Jones for Heisman finalists he’s going to be a first round draft so like us for the most part it’s you have to have really good quarterback player you can have an outlier here and there where you have a team like Ohio State do what they do, and they got hot and Ezekiel Elliott was playing amazing they do they sell a top five roster I mean then NFL guys all over on offense Steven so it mean maybe Carl Jones is a little overrated but the rest of the team wasn’t and then and then same with Alabama Okay, maybe j croaker wasn’t but the vales number one roster in college football last year. I mean some of the guys that are all pro guys in the NFL right now plan so it’s possible if you’re back there right now you have to have you look at Georgia Georgia has had a top five roster every single year Why have they lost their quarterback play? Jake Fromm was was just not great. And then the guy since the dead Bennett they got JT Daniels and they won the last like five games and when they go into next year JT Daniels can continue that Georgia’s team that can all of a sudden when national rusher left out
so it’s just important it’s just so important to have it so but if you’re in the top 10 roster and you pray conference, this stuff’s hard like the PAC 12 don’t necessarily need if Tyler shuck even played like cup takeaways, Luba, the turnovers but the first four games this season, off top my head he had like 10 touchdowns you’d pass in three running and they were averaging 35 plus point points a game he was playing good enough blaster games you can’t you have to calculate like that. Take away a turnover to the first four games I would take that house Chuck and at that time our checkbook comes into next year and plays like he did the first four games. That’s good. Oh, yeah. Oregon is plenty enough to to thought the only game that you would need him to play better than that is the last day the rest of them thinking they could win with that. They’re just not that great teams. Like I went through and told you I talked to these teams. There’s some good pieces there. There’s some good returning production, though. Good to say about the PAC 12 is a lot of players returned. A lot of even guys that had two extra year belts we return so there is not a lot of teams that are not returning a significant amount starters. Well, Stanford and USC are probably two of the teams there have lost most starting production overall. offense defensive production, let’s look into a deeper but but other than those two teams, the rest of the teams. I mean, like I said, Washington, Washington State, I mean, Arizona State those things are returning damn near all their production, even Oregon. Oregon’s returning most of its production, most of the starters. So it’s just but I the IT teams were very good. They might be better next year, I could see the backdrop if they haven’t liked four teams. I actually will probably because they’re having more upperclassmen returning because there’s guys with more experienced guys, I actually have a little more optimism with the PAC 12. I actually the big 10. So T is the one that I’m looking at. And I’m like, they might be taking a little bit of a step back. I think Penn State is taking a little step back, I think Michigan just looking at their overall talent level, slight step back. Um, I really like the programs that I went Northwestern, so they always can have good seasons, but can’t trust Nebraska. So then trust Wisconsin coming back, but there there’s a possibility there’s only one team one team and that’s why I say there’s possibility that happens in and it backs off. Like I said, possibly Arizona State one seven, possibly I mean, you often get Arizona State was Washington, Oregon youth three teams assembling from helmet line, the PAC 12 has been, maybe you get one two in the nashvillian. Sorry, in the year six, maybe you sneak a team like Oregon in, they have a close last Ohio State and run the table, they will get in, they’ll get into playoffs. They’re blown out by Ohio State I can probably back feels like 3524. And then when the rest of their games, they’ll get well. So I actually I have no interest in the PAC 12 actually takes a little step forwards because I think the rosters are a little better. I think the rosters a little more experienced. I think there’s more production coming back. And I think that all has to be accounted for. Penn State’s sorry, represent the big 10. From my initial thought and from what I wanted to get to look deeper, I just don’t think as much production as much experience is coming back. Like a lot of good players they exited they went to the NFL in higher draft grades. For Big 10 pack. Bizarre for Penn State for Michigan for Ohio State. I mean the big 10 in general, I’ll stop my head, there’s probably going to be five six guys drafted in the first round. Whereas the PAC 12 might have one. Maybe two, maybe one maybe two today school because he may be a legendary talker getting in there. Um, so And whereas the big 10 Justin fields will be a first round pick why Davis will be a first round pick. I could see Nate Meyers get in the first round. I could say Jalen Mayfield from Michigan get in the first round. Mike Parsons will be in the first round. I believe there’s a possibility Pat fire move again, the first round, I win completely sleep on shot a Tony possibly, definitely an early day too. So I mean, there’s just a lot more guys and those guys all into the NFL. But
there’s been a little bit of recruiting drop off for some of the better teams like Penn State and Michigan. And the better players left to the draft or and so there’s going to be a little bit of a learning curve. And also there’s staff changes. So I just think it could be a drop off outside of Ohio State. All of a sudden, Oregon upsets Ohio State and Ohio State that has to run table because they lose another game in a conference that might be not quite as good. Maybe the big Ten’s I represent next year. Yeah. Read it somewhere else. I think it was on the cover three podcasts. They said yeah, the big 10 there’s someone maybe to watch, little digression moving forward where you know, you have this kind of reciprocal nature of of college football and whereas like the big 12 I think it’s gonna be good. I think I was state’s going to be good. I think Texas even has the talent to possibly rebound to be pretty good. Big 12 could be up a little bit. ACC has Clemson and North Carolina I think I feel as a little overrated but they bring back so hell on the better quarterbacks cultural plays an elite level, they could be pretty good. On Boston College. You could just see it’s a reciprocal of the patchwall has been down there, the one everyone’s kicking on and they did not have good teams this year. There was no one good, the bad, let’s be honest, but I could see next year where there’s two or three pretty good teams, whereas the big 10 maybe there’s only one or two good teams, so
cause it was reciprocal.
It’s changing. It’s fluid. Anyways, that is night sports podcast. Next week, maybe we’ll get a guest on Pac 12. Big tab. I don’t know. See? Anyways guys, check out the podcast on iTunes. Give it a like, give me a review say hey, I hate what you do. I love what you do. You’re the best fan.
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Santiago Leon is the Founder and CEO of the Sports Cast. He covers NFL, NBA, and world soccer. He’s also founder of sleon productions, which he specializes in technology and serves clients with solutions to make their business grow.