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In this episode, Santiago Leon and Zach Rebackoff preview the 2023 #MLBPostseason.
Purchase Zach Rebackoff’s book: UNMASKED: THE HONORABLE AND DISHONORABLE TRUTHS OF A PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL UMPIRE
https://amzn.to/45iIEDk
Contributors
Santiago Leon – @sleon
Zach Rebackoff – @zachreb1951
American League Divisional Series
Texas Rangers (5) vs. Baltimore Orioles (1)
Game 1: Rangers at Orioles, Saturday, October 7, TBD, FOX/FS1
Game 2: Rangers at Orioles, Sunday, October 8, TBD, FOX/FS1
Game 3: Orioles at Rangers Tuesday, October 10, TBD, FOX/FS1
Game 4: Orioles at Rangers, Wednesday, October 11 TBD, FOX/FS1 Game 5: Rangers at Orioles, Friday, October 13 TBD, FOX/FS1
Rangers swept the Rays in the Wildcard.
Orioles had the bye week.
Baltimore ran away with the American League East. Texas lost control of the West on the final day of the season but blitzed Tampa Bay in the Wild Card Series to earn a trip to Camden Yards for Game 1 on Saturday. The Orioles boast a lineup of homegrown players burgeoning on super-stardom, especially infielder Gunnar Henderson and catcher Adley Rutschman. The Rangers will counter with a lineup built around the $500 million free-agent duo of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, with a rotation led by veterans Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi.
For the Rangers to continue their postseason run, though, they will likely need the home run ball to remain en vogue. Texas finished the regular season tied for the AL lead with 233 home runs. But until Adolis García homered in the fourth inning Wednesday, they had gone a season-long 44 innings without a home run. Like a March Madness team that relies on the 3-pointer, postseason clubs can live and die with the homer. Texas’ pitching may or may not hold up. The Rangers will need the long ball to win either way.
Only the Atlanta Braves had more regular-season wins than Baltimore. Still, the Rangers will be a tough test, as Texas was the best-hitting team in the American League, leading in walks and runs and tied for first in homers. Baltimore also has an impressive lineup but Texas has one of the lowest chase and strikeout rates along with one of the highest hard-hit rates in the game, giving them a slight edge.
The Orioles, meanwhile, led baseball with 48 comeback wins and will try to bounce starters early to attack the Rangers in the best-of-five set. Rangers manager Bruce Bochy has ample playoff experience — and three rings from his time managing the Giants — while Orioles manager Brandon Hyde will have to rely on being part of Joe Maddon’s World Series-winning staff with the Cubs in 2016. — Brittany Ghiroli
Minnesota Twins (3) vs. Houston Astros (2)
Game 1: Twins at Astros, Saturday, October 7, TBD, FOX/FS1
Game 2: Twins at Astros, Sunday, October 8, TBD, FOX/FS1
Game 3: Astros at Twins, Tuesday, October 10, TBD, FOX/FS1
Game 4: Astros at Twins, Wednesday, October 11 TBD, FOX/FS1 Game 5: Twins at Astros, Friday, October 13 TBD, FOX/FS1
Twins sept the Blue Jays.
Astros had the bye week.
Already this October, the Minnesota Twins have done something that felt impossible for their long-suffering fans: They won a postseason game for the first time since 2004. Not only that, the Twins brushed aside the Toronto Blue Jays to capture a postseason series for the first time since 2002. For their next trick, comes a far taller task: Can they dethrone the Houston Astros, the kings of the American League in four of the past six seasons?
• The Astros have won 61, or 51.7%, of the 118 games they've played as favorites this season.
• Houston has entered 59 games this season favored by -156 or more and is 35-24 in those contests.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 60.9% chance of a victory for the Astros.
• The Twins have won in 20, or 40%, of the 50 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• Minnesota has a mark of 4-5 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +133 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Twins have an implied victory probability of 42.9% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
Given that history and Houston’s home-field advantage, it’s no surprise that DraftKings SportsBook has the Astros (-160) as the favorites over the Twins (+135). But the Twins pose a real threat.
The Twins dealt with a lot of injuries this season, and it’s still unclear if Byron Buxton will play in this postseason. But they’ve continued to hit, and the pitching staff gave up just one run in two games to the Blue Jays.
The Astros, meanwhile, are the Astros.
José Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Álvarez, Chas McCormick, Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Ryan Pressly are household names who led this team to a title last season.
Houston dealt with injuries themselves throughout the season to key players but still finished third in the AL in batting average (.259), fifth in homers (222), third in RBI (799) and third in slugging percentage (.437).
That not only clinched a playoff berth but also won them the AL West. Houston has proven that when the air turns brisk, it plays its best baseball. Now they’ll face a Twins team that won the season series between the teams, 4-2, and finally removed a giant monkey from its back in these playoffs.
National League Divisional Series
Philadelphia Phillies (4) vs. Atlanta Braves (1)
Game 1: Phillies at Braves, Saturday, October 7, TBD, TBS
Game 2: Phillies at Braves, Monday, October 9, TBD, TBS
Game 3: Braves at Phillies, Wednesday, October 11, TBD, TBS
Game 4: Braves at Phillies Thursday, October 12, TBD, TBS Game 5: Phillies at Braves, Saturday, October 14, TBD, TBS
Phillies sept the Marlins in the Wildcard.
Braves had the bye and the best record in the regular season.
The Phillies took care of business against the Marlins to set up a rematch of last year’s National League Division Series with the Atlanta Braves. At this stage in October, it doesn’t get much better than this.
The Phillies are the defending National League champions. Bryce Harper returned from Tommy John surgery and put together an excellent season. Trea Turner has catalyzed the lineup. Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm are a year older and wiser. Kyle Schwarber can go deep at any time. It’s a strong offense.
Braves manager Brian Snitker is one of the best in baseball history. The group slugged a preposterous .501 this season. Ronald Acuña Jr. became the first member of the 40-70 club. Matt Olson led the sport with 54 homers. Marcell Ozuna supplied 40, Austin Riley hit 37 and Ozzie Albies connected for 33. The ball could be flying in this series — unless Spencer Strider and Zack Wheeler have something to say about that.
The Phillies shocked the industry when they toppled Atlanta last year. It wouldn’t be a shock to see it happen again — even if these Braves are better than last year’s bunch.
They did it last year, but that’s oversimplifying things. The Braves were different in 2022 and so were the Phillies. There are no surprises between these two teams (well, one we’ll get to) and that is what makes this matchup fun.
The Braves will face the Phillies in the NLDS for the second year in a row, with some similar circumstances to last October, when injuries and illness diminished two of the Braves’ top starting pitchers and the Phillies won the series, 3-1. The Braves believe a major difference is their offense, which was good but inconsistent last year, and has been flat-out great this season, their lineup as deep and dangerous as any in baseball for decades.
Like last year, when the Braves entered the postseason with ace Max Fried diminished by the flu and Spencer Strider weakened by an oblique strain, this time the Braves go in without veteran Charlie Morton, who’ll miss the NLDS with an index finger injury. Fried also finished the regular season on the IL for a recurring blister on his index finger. He pitched five innings in an intrasquad game Tuesday, and has pitched brilliantly coming off two previous IL stints this season, buoying the Braves’ confidence he will again.
But the reason they can beat the Phillies is that overwhelming offense and Game 1 starter Strider. He was roughed up by the Phillies in last year’s Division Series, but Strider is 8-0 with a 1.90 ERA in eight regular-season games against them including this year’s division-clinching win in Philadelphia. The Braves could have Strider for Games 1 and 4, and Fried for Games 2 and 5. The Braves led MLB in most offensive categories and by huge margins in homers (307, tying an MLB record), slugging (.501, first team to slug .500 for a full season) and OPS (.845, 50 points better than any other team). If they have to win an 8-6 or 6-5 game in this year’s Division Series, they believe they are fully capable because they have won those kinds of games all season, including against the Phillies.
Arizona Diamondbacks (6) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (2)
Game 1: Diamondbacks at Dodgers, Saturday, October 7, TBD, TBS
Game 2: Diamondbacks at Dodgers, Monday, October 9, TBD, TBS
Game 3: Dodgers at Diamondbacks Wednesday, October 11, TBD, TBS
Game 4: Dodgers at Diamondbacks, Thursday, October 12, TBD, TBS Game 5: Diamondbacks at Dodgers, Saturday, October 14, TBD, TBS
Diamondbacks swept the Brewers.
Dodgers had the bye.
The Dodgers enter the NLDS as the heavy favorites to advance with -210 odds, per DraftKings Sportsbook. The Diamondbacks have +175 odds to move past the divisional round.
The Dodgers went 8-5 against the Diamondbacks this season and they were particularly effective against Arizona at Dodger Stadium, posting a 5-2 record against the franchise at home and 3-3 on the road.
Carroll, Marte, Gurriel and Christian Walker have been Arizona’s leaders at the plate this season.
Carroll, a rookie, has been particularly impressive in his first full major league season and could very well win the NL Rookie of the Year award. He finished the regular season slashing .285/.362/.506 with 25 home runs, 76 RBI and 54 stolen bases.
Walker also put together a career year, slashing .258/.333/.497 with 33 home runs, 103 RBI and 11 stolen bases.
On the mound, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly have held down the fort. Gallen went 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 220 strikeouts in 210 innings across 34 starts and Kelly went 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 187 strikeouts in 177.2 innings across 30 starts.
As for the Dodgers, they have plenty of championship experience on their roster with the likes of Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Clayton Kershaw, and Enrique Hernandez.
Betts was arguably the team’s best player, slashing .307/.408/.579 with 39 home runs, 107 RBI and 14 stolen bases. Freeman was equally as impressive, hitting .331/.410/.567 with 29 home runs, 102 RBI and 23 stolen bases.
Kershaw, a three-time Cy Young winner, was L.A.’s leader on the mound, posting a 13-5 record, 2.46 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 137 strikeouts in 131.2 innings across 24 starts.
Given L.A.’s championship pedigree, it’s going to be hard for the Diamondbacks to pull off the upset. That said, nothing’s impossible.
