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March Madness: The Average Number of Upsets and What to Expect

Posted on March 19, 2025March 19, 2025 by Santiago Leon

March Madness is one of the most thrilling sporting events of the year, and one of the biggest reasons for its excitement is the upsets. Every year, lower-seeded teams defy the odds, sending higher-seeded opponents packing. But just how common are upsets in the NCAA Tournament? Let’s take a look at the history of March Madness upsets and what fans can expect.

What Defines an “Upset”?

In NCAA tournament terms, an upset occurs when a lower-seeded team defeats a higher-seeded team. While not every close matchup is considered a true upset, fans generally expect them in the early rounds when double-digit seeds take on established powerhouses.

How Many Upsets Happen Each Year?

Since 1985, when the tournament expanded to 64 teams, there has been a consistent average of 12 to 13 upsets per tournament across all rounds.

Breakdown by Round (Historical Averages)

• First Round (Round of 64): ~6.2 upsets per year

• Second Round (Round of 32): ~3.6 upsets per year

• Sweet 16: ~1.7 upsets per year

• Elite Eight: ~0.9 upsets per year

• Final Four & Championship Game: ~0.3 upsets per year

As expected, the first two rounds account for the bulk of the chaos, with Cinderella teams making their mark before the competition tightens in later rounds.

Notable Trends and Records

Over the years, some seeding matchups have produced consistent surprises:

• At least one 12-seed has beaten a 5-seed in 31 of the last 38 tournaments.

• A 15-seed has upset a 2-seed 11 times since 1985, most recently Saint Peter’s stunning Kentucky in 2022.

• The ultimate Cinderella story happened in 2018, when UMBC (16-seed) shocked the world by defeating Virginia (1-seed), marking the only time a 16-seed has ever won.

Record-Breaking Years

• The most upsets in a single tournament: 19 upsets in both 2014 and 2021.

• The fewest upsets in a single tournament: Only 4 upsets in 2007, one of the chalkiest years in history.

What to Expect in Future Tournaments

While March Madness upsets are unpredictable by nature, history suggests that double-digit seeds will continue to pull off surprises, particularly in the first round. Bettors and fans alike should keep an eye on 12-seeds vs. 5-seeds, 10-seeds vs. 7-seeds, and 11-seeds vs. 6-seeds, which have historically been ripe for upsets.

As college basketball continues to evolve—with the rise of transfer portal talent and mid-major programs gaining strength—the likelihood of even more competitive, upset-heavy tournaments remains high.

So as you fill out your bracket, remember: March is mad for a reason! Will this be the year we see another record-breaking Cinderella run? Only time will tell.

 

Related

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  2. West Virginia loses 3 players to transfer portal following Bob Huggins’ resignation
  3. Alijah Arenas commits to USC
  4. AP Poll: Auburn, Duke remain on top
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