No. 10 Notre Dame finds itself in the most uncomfortable position in the College Football Playoff rankings heading into conference championship weekend — the final at-large bubble spot. While the Irish will be idle, several teams directly behind them still control their fate.
On Tuesday night, the CFP Selection Committee dropped Notre Dame one spot, elevating Alabama to No. 9 after the Crimson Tide’s narrow 27–20 win over 5–6 Auburn. BYU sits at No. 11 and will face No. 4 Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship, while Miami checks in at No. 12.
Why No. 10 Is the Most Dangerous Spot in the CFP Rankings
The No. 10 ranking is the most volatile position in the field. It represents the final at-large playoff berth, and any shift created by championship weekend results could push Notre Dame out entirely.
If BYU defeats Texas Tech, the Big 12 could send two teams to the Playoff, which would almost certainly eliminate Notre Dame from contention. If the Cougars lose, the committee would likely be forced to choose between Miami and Notre Dame for the final playoff spot.
CFP Committee Confirms Idle Teams Can Still Move
During Tuesday’s broadcast on ESPN, CFP committee member Hunter Yurachek confirmed that idle teams are not locked into their current rankings.
“Indeed, idle teams can move following the results of the championship games and how they impact the teams that are around those that play,” Yurachek said. “Teams that are idle can move up or down.”
When asked directly if Miami could jump Notre Dame, Yurachek declined to single out any team but confirmed the entire Top 25 will be reranked after championship weekend.
What Notre Dame Needs to Reach the CFP
For the Irish to feel confident on Selection Sunday, the following results would significantly boost their chances:
- BYU must lose the Big 12 Championship
- Alabama must struggle badly or lose
- The committee must favor Notre Dame’s overall résumé over Miami’s head-to-head argument
Miami, meanwhile, will be pulling hard for a Texas Tech win over BYU, while also hoping the committee values the Hurricanes’ direct comparison over total season performance.
Selection Sunday Will Decide Notre Dame’s Fate
With no game left to influence their résumé, Notre Dame’s postseason destiny now rests entirely in the hands of other teams and the selection committee. The Irish will spend championship weekend watching every result closely, knowing that one upset could be the difference between a playoff berth and watching from home.