As the 2025 NFL regular season heads into its thrilling final stretch on December 23, 2025, the AFC playoff race is heating up. With several teams already clinched and others on the brink, Week 17 promises high-stakes drama. According to NFL Network insider Mike Garafolo, here are the key AFC clinching scenarios that could reshape the postseason bracket.
The Denver Broncos (12-3) and New England Patriots (12-3) lead the conference, while teams like the Houston Texans (10-5) fight for wild-card spots. Let’s break down the paths to clinching divisions, seeds, and playoff berths.
Denver Broncos Clinching Scenarios
The Broncos, despite a recent setback, remain in pole position for the AFC West and the coveted No. 1 seed.
- Clinching the AFC West and No. 1 Seed: A Thursday win over the Kansas City Chiefs, combined with losses by the Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, and Jacksonville Jaguars.
This path would secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, giving Denver a massive edge.
New England Patriots Clinching Scenarios
The Patriots have staged an impressive resurgence in 2025, bouncing back from recent sub-.500 seasons.
- Clinching the AFC East Title: A win or tie against the New York Jets on Sunday, or a Buffalo Bills loss.
A division title would lock in home-field advantage for at least the wild-card round and position them strongly for a top seed.
Houston Texans Clinching Scenarios
At 10-5, the Texans are battling for a wild-card berth amid a competitive AFC South race led by the Jacksonville Jaguars.
- Clinching a Wild-Card Berth:
- A Saturday victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, OR
- An Indianapolis Colts loss, OR
- A complex strength-of-victory tiebreaker involving wins by the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and San Francisco 49ers, plus losses by the Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins.
These scenarios highlight the razor-thin margins in the wild-card hunt.
Why These AFC Playoff Scenarios Matter in 2025
The 2025 AFC playoff picture is wide open, with tiebreakers and strength-of-victory playing pivotal roles. The Broncos and Patriots are tied atop the standings, while surging teams like the Jaguars and Chargers have already punched their tickets in recent weeks. Week 17 features marquee matchups, including Broncos vs. Chiefs on Christmas Day and Texans vs. Chargers on Saturday.
Fans searching for NFL playoff clinching scenarios 2025, AFC playoff picture Week 17, or specific team paths like Broncos clinch No. 1 seed or Patriots AFC East clinch will find these details crucial as the postseason approaches.
Stay tuned for updates as games unfold—Super Bowl 60 contenders could be decided this week!