The NBA is making one of the biggest changes to its draft lottery in decades. Beginning with the 2027 NBA Draft, the league will introduce a new 3-2-1 lottery system designed to discourage teams from intentionally losing games in hopes of securing the No. 1 overall pick.
The updated format significantly changes the odds of winning the draft lottery and gives more opportunities to teams that remain competitive throughout the season.
What Is the NBA’s 3-2-1 Lottery System?
The NBA’s 3-2-1 lottery system is a revised draft lottery format that awards lottery combinations based on where a team finishes outside the playoffs rather than heavily favoring the league’s worst records.
Unlike the previous lottery system, where the three worst teams each had the highest chance of winning the No. 1 overall pick, the new format shifts those odds toward teams that narrowly miss the postseason.
The league believes the change will reduce incentives for teams to tank while making more regular-season games meaningful.
How the NBA’s 3-2-1 Lottery Works
The 16 teams that do not qualify for the playoffs will participate in the lottery.
Lottery combinations are distributed as follows:
- Bottom three teams (worst records): 2 lottery balls each (5.4% chance at the No. 1 pick)
- Next seven teams (best non-playoff, non-play-in teams): 3 lottery balls each (8.1% chance each)
- Four teams eliminated after finishing 9th or 10th in each conference: 2 lottery balls each (5.4% chance each)
- Two teams that lose the 7-vs.-8 Play-In Tournament games: 1 lottery ball each (2.7% chance each)
A total of 37 lottery balls will determine the draft order.
How Is This Different From the Previous NBA Lottery?
Under the previous system:
- Only 14 teams entered the lottery.
- The three teams with the worst records each received a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick.
- Finishing with the NBA’s worst record provided the greatest lottery advantage.
Beginning in 2027:
- Sixteen teams will participate.
- The bottom three teams will no longer have the best odds.
- The highest lottery odds will belong to the seven teams that narrowly miss both the playoffs and the Play-In Tournament.
This represents a dramatic shift in how teams may approach rebuilding.
Additional NBA Anti-Tanking Measures
The NBA also approved several new restrictions aimed at preventing franchises from repeatedly benefiting from poor seasons.
These include:
- A team cannot win the No. 1 overall pick in consecutive years.
- A team cannot receive a top-five draft pick in three consecutive drafts.
- The NBA Commissioner will have expanded authority to penalize organizations found intentionally tanking by reducing lottery odds, moving draft positions, or imposing other league discipline.
Why Did the NBA Change the Lottery System?
The NBA hopes the 3-2-1 lottery system will:
- Reduce incentives for intentional losing.
- Encourage teams to compete throughout the entire regular season.
- Increase the importance of late-season games.
- Reward organizations that remain competitive rather than those with the league’s worst records.
League officials believe these changes will create a more balanced and entertaining regular season while improving competitive integrity.
When Does the 3-2-1 Lottery System Begin?
The new format will debut with the 2027 NBA Draft and is expected to remain in place through the 2029 NBA Draft, when the NBA plans to evaluate its effectiveness before deciding whether to make it permanent.
Final Thoughts
The NBA’s 3-2-1 lottery system represents one of the most significant changes to the draft process in recent memory. By reducing the reward for finishing with the league’s worst record and giving better odds to teams that remain competitive, the NBA hopes to discourage tanking and strengthen competition across the league.
Fans will get their first look at the new format during the 2027 NBA Draft, where the race for the No. 1 overall pick will look very different from previous years.