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Santiago Leon and Chandler Christa preview the 2023 NFL Week 16.
Contributors
Santiago Leon – @sleon
Chandler Christa
PREDICTIONS
12/24/2022
Buffalo Bills (11-3) at Chicago Bears (3-11), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Bills -8.5 | Total: 40.5
The Bears put the Eagles to the test last week. Quarterback Justin Fields put up 95 rushing yards, and the defense intercepted Jalen Hurts twice and prevented him from throwing a touchdown for the first time since Week 5. They easily covered the 8.5-point spread against Philadelphia’s weak rushing defense. The offensive line struggled to protect Fields, however, allowing him to be sacked six times. This week, Chicago faces the Bills, who have the third-best rushing defense in the league. It’s going to be 3 degrees with 20 m.p.h. winds on Saturday, but the Bills are no strangers to the cold. The Bears would be wise to let Fields take it easy and plan for the future. Pick: Bills -8.5
CC: BUF
New Orleans Saints (5-9) at Cleveland Browns (6-8), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Browns -3 | Total: 31.5
This is the lowest total of the week at 31.5 points. Last week, Deshaun Watson threw only four passes of more than 10 yards in the Browns’ 13-3 win over Baltimore. This week, running back Nick Chubb is questionable. Without him in the lineup, and with Cade York kicking field goals in 40 m.p.h. winds, it’s hard to see how the Browns score many points. In a game with such a low total, the value of each point in the spread is magnified for the underdog. The Saints are still very much in the playoff hunt and could win outright. Pick: Saints +3
CC: NO
Houston Texans (1-12-1) at Tennessee Titans (7-7), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Titans -5 | Total: 37
The Titans have not looked good over the past six weeks, and they are in danger of losing their division to the surging Jaguars. Fortunately, they get the last-place Texans this week to try to get a much-needed victory. The market may overreact to the Texans’ taking Kansas City to overtime last week, but that game was deceiving. Despite the close score, the Texans were massively outplayed in nearly every category offensively. The Texans benefited from Kansas City’s drawing 10 penalties for 102 yards, and they easily covered the 14-point spread. This week, they have fewer points to help them out so they’ll need the referees even more. Pick: Titans -5
CC: TEN
Seattle Seahawks (7-7) at Kansas City (11-3), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Kansas City -10 | Total: 48
Kansas City believes it is Super Bowl bound, and why not? Patrick Mahomes is playing M.V.P.-caliber football. He has the best expected points added per dropback, and last week he completed a career-best 87.8 percent of his passes. But this is not a team beyond reproach.
Kansas City’s defense ranks 24th in D.V.O.A. (that advanced metric we mentioned earlier), and has given up at least 24 points in four of its past five games. This week, Kansas City faces Seattle, which has a similarly productive defense. And Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith, whose E.P.A. per dropback used to rival Mahomes’s, has dropped to 9th after some flat performances the past two weeks. Still, Kansas City has to cover the biggest spread of any team this week, and is 3-10-1 against the spread this season. Pick: Seahawks +10
CC: SEA
Giants (8-5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (11-3), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Vikings -3 | Total: 47.5
This game should be entertaining if nothing else. The Vikings will make sure of it. They’ve won 11 games and 10 of them have been by 8 points or fewer. Last week, they fell behind to the Colts 33-0 just to set up the greatest comeback in N.F.L. history and win, 39-36. The Giants are coming off their biggest win of the season against Washington, nearly guaranteeing an appearance in the playoffs. Just like the Vikings, the Giants play close games. None of their eight wins have been by more than one score. Odds are this game will be close, too. The Giants bottom-feeding defense (29th in D.V.O.A.) may give the Vikings the slight edge. Pick: Vikings -3
CC: MIN
Cincinnati Bengals (10-4) at New England Patriots (7-7), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Bengals -3.5 | Total: 41.5
The Bengals are playing some of the best football in the N.F.L. right now, and the Patriots are playing not to lose each week. The point spread looks puny relative to the apparent gap in each of these teams’ performances recently. But despite 86 percent of the bettors backing Cincinnati, 68 percent of the money has been on the Patriots. Such is the value of home-field advantage, which narrows the gap between these two teams slightly. The Patriots have one of the best defenses in the league, and their coach knows how to manage a game and keep the team in a position to pounce on opponents’ mistakes. They just need to avoid making any boneheaded mistakes of their own. Pick: Patriots +3.5
CC: CIN
Detroit Lions (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-9), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Lions -3 | Total: 44.5
The Lions are doing the unthinkable: They are making a legitimate playoff run. They’ve won six of their past seven games. A win against the Panthers would bring their playoff chances up to around 56 percent. Last week, the Panthers lost to the Steelers after putting up a total of 21 rushing yards, their fewest since 2012. D’Onta Foreman had rushed for more than 70 yards in each of their two wins going into the Pittsburgh game. The Lions defense has been improving, but their average opponent’s yards per play is still the league’s worst. If the Panthers can get back to the run game that helped them beat Seattle and Denver, and Detroit’s defense regresses to the mean, the Panthers can cover the 3 points as home underdogs. Pick: Panthers +3
CC: DET
Atlanta Falcons (5-9) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Ravens -7.5 | Total: 37.5
Quarterback Desmond Ridder’s debut last week did not go well. He threw for 97 yards on 26 pass attempts and leaned heavily on Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson to move the ball in the 21-18 loss to the Saints. Allgeier had a career-high 139 yards and a touchdown, and he averaged 8.2 yards per carry. The Ravens had hoped to see Lamar Jackson return to the team this week. Since Jackson left the game in the first quarter of their Week 13 game against Denver, the Ravens have scored two touchdowns in three games. Last week against the Browns, they didn’t reach the end zone once. Jackson was absent from practice Tuesday, however. If he doesn’t play, the Ravens will need their defense, which has held teams to 3.8 yards per carry, to shut down Allgeier. Pick: Ravens -7.5
CC: BAL
Washington Commanders (7-6-1) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4), 4:05 p.m., CBS
Line: 49ers -7.5 | Total: 38.5
San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy threw for 217 yards and two touchdowns against the Seahawks last week and clinched the N.F.C. West. Purdy has managed the team well, but has thrown only three passes more than 20 yards. Perhaps the 49ers simply haven’t needed him to throw it deep. Their offense is a well-oiled machine, with a league best points per play margin over the past three weeks. They have built up big first half leads in their past five games. If they can do the same thing this week, and nurse the lead in the second half, the Commanders can sneak in a cover. Pick: Commanders +7.5
CC: SF
Philadelphia Eagles (13-1) at Dallas Cowboys (10-4), 4:25 p.m., Fox
Line: Cowboys -5.5 | Total: 45
Jalen Hurts sprained a shoulder against the Bears and won’t be playing this week. Gardner Minshew fills in, and the Cowboys are 5.5-point favorites. But even before the news of the Hurts injury, the Cowboys opened as 1.5-point favorites, which essentially meant the teams were considered even but Dallas had home-field advantage. These teams match up extremely well, and if Hurts had been healthy this game, it most likely would have been a blockbuster. With Hurts out, it may come down to whose defense is better. The Eagles have the edge there, since Dallas has some cluster injuries on defense, and the Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in the league. Pick: Eagles +5.5
CC: DAL
Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8), 8:15 p.m., NFL Network
Line: Steelers -3 | Total: 39
Both of these teams need to win out their remaining three games: the Raiders to make the playoffs, and the Steelers to keep Coach Mike Tomlin’s streak of winning seasons intact. Last week, the Steelers were 2.5-point underdogs to the Panthers, and this week they are laying 3 points to the Raiders. That’s a huge swing in market sentiment, especially with Kenny Pickett in concussion protocol. Pittsburgh will be about 8 degrees with a -4 wind chill on Saturday night, which will make things uncomfortable for the Raiders. But if they have anything left in the tank, they’ll bring it. Pick: Raiders +3
CC: LV
Sunday’s Games
Green Bay Packers (6-8) at Miami Dolphins (8-6), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Dolphins -4 | Total: 48.5
The Dolphins let a fourth-quarter lead slip away in a snowball-filled game in Buffalo last week. Despite the loss, they played well enough against one of the best teams in the league that they should have earned some confidence for the Packers this week. Raheem Mostert racked up 136 of the team’s 188 rushing yards against one of the N.F.L.’s top rushing defenses, and the Packers have one of the league’s worst. And the Dolphins continue to have an elite passing attack with receivers Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Still, Aaron Rodgers believes the Packers can still make the playoffs. They have yet to beat a top-10 offense this season. Pick: Dolphins -4
CC: MIA
Denver Broncos (4-10) at Los Angeles Rams (4-10), 4:30 p.m., CBS and Nickelodeon
Line: Rams +2.5 | Total: 37
If you’re looking for a game to skip so you can spend some holiday time with your family, this might be it (or if you want to do both you could opt to watch the kid-pandering Nickelodeon broadcast). Both of these teams are trying to run out the clock on their seasons. The Rams are officially out of the playoffs after a loss to Green Bay, and the Broncos are essentially playing to save Coach Nathaniel Hackett’s job. Pick: Broncos -2.5
CC: LAR
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) at Arizona Cardinals (4-10), 8:20 p.m., NBC
Line: Buccaneers -6 | Total: 41.5
Colt McCoy left the game last week with a concussion and is day-to-day. If he doesn’t play, the third string quarterback Trace McSorley will get the start for Arizona. Tampa Bay’s defense has been the bright spot in an otherwise forgettable season, holding teams to an average of 314.7 yards. If McSorley plays, he may not get the ball past midfield. Pick: Buccaneers -6
CC: TB
Monday Night’s Game
Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) at Indianapolis Colts (4-9-1), 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Line: Chargers -4 | Total: 47
Yes, the Chargers have quarterback Justin Herbert, and he has kept them alive in countless games they otherwise should have been out of. Despite his generational talent, the Chargers still are only the 24th best offense according to D.V.O.A. Their offensive line has a hard time blocking, and their average rush picks up only 3.7 yards, worse than every team’s but Tampa Bay. Yes, the Colts have put their best player, running back Jonathan Taylor, on injured reserve. And yes, they are coming off the worst collapse of any team in N.F.L. history. But the Colts nearly have a top-10 defense, and they’re getting points at home. This is a tougher spot for the Chargers than it may appear. Pick: Colts +4
CC: IND
