The 2025 College Football Playoff picture is heading toward one of the most controversial Selection Day finishes in recent history. Following Georgia’s dominant win over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, the committee now faces its toughest decisions of the season — and the ripple effects could impact the SEC, ACC, and multiple at-large contenders.
At the center of the storm are Alabama, Notre Dame, and Miami, all battling for the final two at-large playoff spots. Meanwhile, imperfections in the system could leave ACC champion Duke out entirely, while Sun Belt champion James Madison is projected to jump into the field.
Georgia’s Win Over Alabama Reshapes the Playoff Picture
Georgia’s resounding victory over Alabama in the SEC title game shattered the previous assumptions surrounding the final rankings. Alabama now sits at 10–3, and for the first time all season, the Tide’s playoff position is legitimately vulnerable.
The committee must now decide:
- How far should a three-loss Alabama fall?
- Should Notre Dame reclaim priority?
- Does Miami’s résumé deserve a late surge into the bracket?
This single decision could determine whether the ACC is fully excluded from the College Football Playoff.
Projected Final Top 12 College Football Playoff Rankings
Here is the projected final CFP Top 12 entering Selection Day:
- Indiana (13–0) – Big Ten Champion
- Ohio State (12–1) – Big Ten Runner-Up
- Georgia (12–1) – SEC Champion
- Texas Tech (12–1) – Big 12 Champion
- Oregon (11–1)
- Ole Miss (11–1)
- Texas A&M (11–1)
- Oklahoma (10–2)
- Notre Dame (10–2)
- Alabama (10–3)
- Miami (10–2)
- BYU (11–2) – Projected to be replaced by James Madison
James Madison is projected to earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion. Tulane has clinched an automatic bid as the American Athletic Conference champion.
Why BYU and ACC Champion Duke Are Likely Out
BYU’s résumé took a major hit after another double-digit loss to Texas Tech, which severely damaged its case as a two-loss team fighting for the final spot.
More alarmingly for the conference, ACC champion Duke is also expected to miss the playoff entirely due to:
- Weaker strength of schedule
- Limited Top 25 wins
- Losses to lower-ranked opponents
This outcome would mark a rare complete ACC exclusion from the CFP field.
Notre Dame vs. Miami vs. Alabama: Who Gets In?
Notre Dame (10–2)
- Consistently ranked inside the top 10 all season
- Benefitted from BYU’s loss and Alabama’s blowout defeat
- Strong late push puts the Irish in pole position
Miami (10–2)
- Owns a head-to-head win over Notre Dame
- Weaker schedule strength and two losses to unranked teams hurt its case
- Needs Alabama to drop further to move into the top 10
Alabama (10–3)
- Owns a win over SEC champion Georgia
- Three losses and poor performance in the title game loom large
- The committee must decide if brand strength outweighs recent results
Projected First-Round College Football Playoff Matchups
- James Madison at Oregon
- Tulane at Ole Miss
- Alabama at Texas A&M
- Notre Dame at Oklahoma
Projected Quarterfinal Matchups
- Oregon or James Madison vs. Texas Tech
- Ole Miss or Tulane vs. Georgia
- Texas A&M or Alabama vs. Ohio State
- Oklahoma or Notre Dame vs. Indiana
What’s at Stake on Selection Day
Selection Day is now loaded with historic implications:
- Potential total ACC exclusion
- A Sun Belt champion breaking into the playoff
- Alabama on the verge of being pushed toward the edge
- Notre Dame and Miami locked in one final résumé showdown
Final Takeaway
The College Football Playoff committee now faces its most polarizing decision under the expanded format. Georgia’s win over Alabama reopened the door for Notre Dame and Miami, while BYU and Duke appear to be the biggest casualties of championship weekend.
If the committee drops Alabama far enough, both Notre Dame and Miami could sneak in together — a scenario that would leave the SEC with fewer seats at the table than expected and send shockwaves through the sport.