In this episode, Tyler Turner is going over the release and the teams in his 2021 team talent Formula
Tyler Turner 0:31
Welcome to the sports cast it is the Tyler Turner show today’s date, February 7 2021. Please check us out on Periscope, YouTube and on iTunes. And on iTunes, please leave a review. I would appreciate it. We appreciate it very much. Well, today Oh also check us out on sports cast one on Twitter and sports cast. dotnet. And actually, since I said the sports cast dotnet that is a it’s a very good prayer. For that, that’s something go to sportscast, dotnet. And check out one of our newest articles, because that is pretty much what my whole podcast is going to entail is going over to the 2021 team talent formula. So if you go to sports cast dotnet, it is the fourth article down and it’s by Tyler Turner. And it was posted today, supposedly probably about six hours ago. If you open it up, as I’m doing right now, as along here. You open it up, and here we go, we’re gonna go the 2021 team talent formula, I explained that this is the third consecutive year that I have actually done this formula, I release it always after the second national Signing Day. By that time, everyone who’s going to declare underclassmen have declared for the NFL Draft. Also you have all the sinese and the potential sinese for the 2021 class, for the most part 99.9 have signed. Now this year is only thing that’s a little different. And I kind of mentioned as a caveat, in my initial statement to my formula. And the little paragraph above it, I said that this year is a little different because of the COVID pandemic. And because individuals that were seniors this year, get an extra year of eligibility. So when I went back and looked at the rosters, some of those if I didn’t know, I actually didn’t count them on the roster, I would do my research as much as I could some guys I knew that they did you did most of the message boards, or somewhere online that said that they had decided to use your extra year. But there was a few that albick have made a decision yet they actually have to march 1 first. And so they have three weeks to decide if they are going to obviously I’ll be listening anyone that I possibly know that I didn’t count or that possibly that I maybe did count Well, I forgot I didn’t count, I didn’t really didn’t count very many seniors, unless I knew they’re coming back. Like there’s some seniors that declared they said there were declared their intentions to come back. It’s obviously I counted them but some I didn’t know. So if guys are deciding not to come back, I’m going to be removing them. And they’re going to be going on their their way to folder after whatever they choose to do. I think a lot will be wise, if you’re not do not have an NFL future, it would be wise to take advantage of the extra year, you get an extra year of education. I actually I don’t specifically know maybe they’re giving them away half a year. I don’t know how they’re gonna do that. Because most scholarships are written for division one athletes are written for four years. And so if they do the extra year, it would depend I don’t know maybe they just have them do the extra half year for the football season and then they have to graduate or get their studies done by then scholarship only cash covers a half year. I don’t know if they’ll be as problematic power five schools for non power five group of five especially FCS schools. They’re don’t just that don’t have the money to be just keep on paying for every one scholarship for an extra year, especially since there’s a limit of the massage stick and have normally and then they you could you could if everyone decides to come back for their extra year, let’s say 14 seniors they all decide to come back. And you’re at the 85 limit anyways, you have to pay for 99 full scholarships. That’s really expensive in a year where athletic departments It’s horrible. I don’t know. I just don’t see it happening. I think they’re telling me Joe’s maybe that I don’t know. I don’t know, there has to be a way for them to be just very transparent with people and say hey, we can’t cover us. So anyways, my team Teleflora explains it specifically on there. I’ll go over exactly how I did it and because I wrote it at the very bottom and I’m actually going to start from the bottom. So this works out by formula explanation to it. It is using the 247 capital. scores, I give six points to the highest rated players players that are rated above point 9950. And above on the 247 composite, they get six points, players rated 98 point point 9850 to 99.49, they are given 555 point five points, put on my mouse all over the place talk a little bit you know, Kaos pros rated
90.9750 1090 849 their 4.5 points and then I so kinda level it is six point players or top 10 level players five point point five point players are usually taught like top 25 level players 4.5 points and above players are usually top 50 level players, and then players 90 550 to 90 749 3.5 points, that’s a top 100 level player. And then I do 2.5 points, players rated 90 350 I’m not gonna actually go through all this is different than it, I basically write it 1025 50 100 150 200 250. And then I go down to tiers 212345 different tiers of the three stars. And instead of the two for 17 talent composite rates at each individual gets their own value, but it’s a much more complicated for formula uses the gas shoni and distribution formula. And that is a bell curve. And it gives every player a value from the highest to lowest. And that’s kind of how they level out the numbers, their mind is a lot more simplistic. I basically rate players in groups. So top 10 players, they get all the same value, top 30 players all get the same value top 50. In the end on the last two formulas, and I didn’t do it this, this is the first time I’ve done this way I’ve been to other formulas. But my formulas so far have been pretty consistent with the team talent composite, I mean, they’re not exactly the same, but they’ve been pretty similar. And I think it’s gonna be the same because at the end of the day, if you have five top 10 players, and another team has none, you’re gonna probably have a better roster rating. And that’s kind of how I mean, default five stars get the most points, all my five stars get the most value. So if you have 55 stars like Alabama, or 75 stars to Georgia, you’re gonna have the most points, that number is gonna add up, because at the end, I add all the numbers together. And basically, you have five, six point players for 5.53 4.5. And I just add them all together, you know, six times three plus 5.5 times four, plus 4.5, times three, and so on and so on. And I go down the rosters until at the bottom, I actually do if you’re a two star, you don’t get rated by go all the way to the bottom of three stars. Three stars, like if you’re very low as three star you get as point 05 point rating. And it’s very similar, the cash only distribution, it’s kind of like that, like if you’re really low rated guy, like low three star you get like very minimal value. So looking forward to seeing some reactions, I shared it with my buddies over at West Coast CFP, I’m honored to share it on the site, and anyone else who wants to look at the information, go ahead. Anyway, this is gonna be a quicker podcast, probably about half an hour, 45 minutes. So I’m just going to go through the top 25. And I also have the next slide out. So I have the five teams that just missed the top 45 with their baseline talent. So this dip performer is just baseline talent, I am going to do something else I’m going to do a talent plus production. And just add a little kind of secondary formula. It’s gonna be talent, props for production, I’m going to add whatever returning productions coming back a weighted percentage of it. So I think it’s like, I think I’m gonna do 33% of the weighted production plus the baseline talent to kind of give because I did a rough draft and it did change the numbers a little bit because some teams that have want more returning talent. So it’s returning production, Richard guys that have actually produced guys with experience with experienced production and added that our baseline, just change the numbers, because some of these teams as I go through the numbers, some of these seams are very close. There’s different definitely tears to the to the talent right now, either definitely not one tear, obviously. Oh, and there’s not two years and there’s not three, it’s probably like four or five. I stopped at 25 because one, I don’t really have time to do more than that. I did 30 analysis and also cup teams just outside the next five hours because I tried to figure out which which teams are there. I have an idea what Talent is on each team. Um, but my main reason for kind of stop it because I this is my third year doing the team California, my main reason for kind of stopping is because I had never seen a team outside the top 25 with in regards to baseline talent, according to the two 417 talent composite, and even from my knowledge in
from who’s made the BCS championship, like, if you don’t have top 25 talent, you’re probably not going to be playing for a title and you’re and and as the numbers have showed, and as the data has showed, if you don’t have a top 25 talent, you actually have never a team has never made the possible playoffs. So no team without top 25 talent has ever made the college football playoffs and and actually, only one team outside the top 10. So off top my head. Well if you add Oregon’s for your ranking, because the team talent composite for 247 Sports started in 2000 and was incepted. its inception was in 2015. So in 2014, Oregon, and Ohio State played for the national championship that was a that was the initial that was the beginning of a college football playoff. And Oregon’s four year recruiting average was 1920. I’m just my head 19 it was 14 plus 12 equals 2626 plus nine equals 4545 66 was 16 and a half. So you could say that for your average, you get around 17 around it, whatever was 16 or 17, which would have been outside the top 10. But in the six years of the team talent composite, only one team outside the top 10 is even played in the championship game. There has been five teams that have made the playoffs outside the top 10. But to play in the championship game, there’s only been one but if you count Oregon, they probably we read from what the recruiting average. And if that’s not a perfect science, especially now cheap transfer portal has changed everything. Like there was still some sites, athletes sports is one. And there’s a couple other sites that go off of like a four or five year recruiting average. That’s not accurate anymore. There’s too many guys who hit the portal. There’s some teams that have had tons of guys at the portal from the rosters. So they’re not even close to what their four year averages. And then there’s other teams that have done extremely well on the portal like Florida, like Florida has has, has gotten five former five stars to come to them from the portal. So five, five stars, they have seven five stars and rosters. Five of them are from the portal. So they transferred from other teams. If you actually go with Florida’s four year average, Florida’s four year average is significantly lower than what their baseline talent says. Because of all the transfers that add in the portal. Miami is another team that’s been pretty good in the portal. USC has done very well in recent years in the portal. So the for a fee, you’ll see a number 64 ramp roster if you do there for your average 60. Okay, so they had number 20 number 6484 892 was 496. Therefore your average is 24. Well, I’m going to tell you where they are. They’re way above 24. There are top 20.
you look at the roster, they have 50% blue chip players, they have double digit top 100 players, and they have multiple five stars. So that’s much better than the footbed big thing is they’ve been really good and forth in the portal, they’ve landed. What is it three top 100 guys including one five star so you have to take the portal into consideration because it’s the four year average, I just think is just not it’s just not good. It’s not it’s not accurate. It’s plain and simple is just not an accurate indicator anymore. If you’re going to actually do that I would say three years or better to go after the three three year because just have the movement in the portal, especially guys that are juniors or seniors or or redshirt sophomores that are playing I would say if you’re going to do that method, do a three year average. That’s going to give a more accurate measurement that five years not all four years, not anymore. Three years probably the best of the if you’re gonna go with that. But anyways, back to my point not to get off track. I know I tend to go straight like few bird flying, ADHD disorder gone bad, but um plain and simple.
Okay, plain and simple of batch mode for going back to what I was what I was saying, Oh anyways, if you don’t have top 45 roster, you’re probably not going to make playoffs. And so far in six years of the tutorial composite no team has and then very few outside the top down to be honest with you and to make championship game other than one team in six years only one non top 10 team and to win a championship there’s never been one even if you go back to for your average one with Ohio State. Therefore your averages averages way inside the top 10 you’re in your vacuum farther to the teams playing the BCS and wanted to say way better Alabama way better Alabama way better. Auburn might have been the last team that might not have had a four year average. That was better than 10, I would have to go back and look I have no idea. But it’s been a while plain and simple. You want to give yourself the best probability you’re going to have taught me top 25 talents even give yourself any consideration. If you want to give yourself the best chance and have a roster that is probably most competitive, and the most probable to make the cause for class top 10. The data shows that Anyways, let’s start off next five out the next five out a number would be number 30. Going backwards TCU at 57.9 points Maryland 59.9 2928 would be all Miss 60.15. Arizona State 62.95 would be 27. And the team that’s closest to being in my top 25 that is just outside is Stanford at 65.25. Stanford, my first two four formulas were inside the top 20. According to two 417 calabaza. They had been inside the top 26 years of it. So for them to be outside of the top 25, let alone the top 20 shows it adds significant attrition. And they’ve also not recruited very well. And that is that is the case of their last four classes. They’ve had two classes that were 41 and 51. And they also had several guys leave early to the NFL. And last year I think they had 12 or 13 guys hit the portal and transfer out. So between transfers early draft entries and not very good breeding classes. Stanford’s talent level is now sitting just outside top 25 Okay, number 25 UCLA Bruins they have 05 stars 19 four stars, and they have for top 100 players clicking on them Devin recruited that great but they’ve been very good the portal they they were able to get three different former blue chippers into the team from the board all this year including top 50 running backs that carbonate who went to Michigan. He’s from out there in 1000, Oaks, California, he transferred back. I can’t remember the other couple guys named they got a four star from Texas a&m and they got a four star from I can’t remember can’t remember they got they actually got like six guys from the portal but three were blue chippers. So that really helped them. They also have a lot of guys come back. A lot of guys that could have had it off to the draft decided to come back even guy like Durrant during tops Robinson he didn’t declare that a lot of four year old guys that were seniors and they decide to use extra year of eligibility guys like Britton Brown. I can’t think of off the top of my head but if he did it very well with having guys come back. They actually bring back a second most production college football next year 91% production so suddenly it could be a little better next year. Well more talent with more production coming back with more experience. Who’s gonna watch out number 24 Nebraska 66.35 points is what they came out to. They don’t have any five stars if 23 four stars and they have too much that thing is making noise bacteria. It’s annoying me. They have to top 100 players, it’s actually got to put the 100 on here. So added that in there. Any notes about Nebraska I guess the thing is, is they have actually recruited at top 120 levels last three years they’ve had two top one and they’ve had three straight top 20 classes. I think there were 1820 and 20. So you’re saying if you went by that average they should probably be going inside the top 20 and they probably would actually I know they would on the problem with Nebraska is not only had they had about 2020 to 25 guys transfer out of the school. They have lost several high rated guys and high rated guys and other guys that were
just productive, maybe not as high rated so production just to hurt your team. High rated hurts your score and this because obviously the higher the rating out of high school with your recruiting ranking, the better score There’s going to be one Dale Robinson, a former top 100 guy. He transferred out they also lost a guy like keyshawn Johnson who signed last year he turned to john green sorry, he transferred out Henry grey who says this for sorry he transferred out. Fleming I forgot his first name. Fleming. He was a wide receiver he transferred out. And then they had several other guys like JD Spielman, who was just a very productive player. They’ve had tons of productive players, Maurice Washington actually ended up being expelled due to some personal indiscretion. So it’s been a law man. And I look at them and and I remember when Scott frost came there, three years ago now and he had a roster that wasn’t great. And he had guys that left the program, he’s just like, get on the recruit. And I’m gonna get these guys in there. And it’s gonna take some time. But the problem is, is they’re leaving the better players that he’s recruited or transferring out. So he’s only bringing back like 70 of the 75th is ranked in production. He’s only bringing back about 72% of his production, which is not as good as you would like, especially for the fact that he had so many guys leaves the younger guys brought in, and somebody have transferred out that he’s still not bringing bringing back much production. I don’t know. I don’t know what’s got for us. I’m not so convinced that it’s going to work out there. They’re going to have to be very patient because it might be one way longer than might be three, four more years. And he has to approve even better because this year’s class wasn’t as good. Number 23 Kentucky 66.405 stars 23, four stars, top 100 players they have for top 100 players and guess who they got, they got wandel Robinson from Nebraska, former top 100 player productive player in Nebraska. He added a four star he added to top 100 player to them Kentucky actually, if they hadn’t gotten Robinson decawave 3.5 points, they would have been outside the top 25. But because they are Robinson they’re inside the top 25 that shows you how close these teams are. These rosters are very similar. Number 22, Wisconsin 68.3. They have two five stars, they have 14 four stars, and they have for top 100 players. Once again, this is best if you’re following along online sports task dotnet. And it’s number four link. It’s team talent formula. It’s best if you’re following along, I don’t have a sheet where I can actually show you the teams. I wish I had software that I could be able to bullet point every single team up there as they come up, but I can’t. So I’m just walking through as I’m looking at it on my screen. So if you want to check it out and follow along sports cast dotnet Team 2021 team talent formula article by Tyler Turner. It was posted today. Almost always Wisconsin. There number 22. Wisconsin in the team talent composite. So I just went back checked it out for analysts and say hey, what has exactly been the trend with Wisconsin so the initial team tell formula they were number of Okay, now I will I forgot. But try to wing this because I had in my mind, the number of first team California I believe they were like number 14 decide to teleco pause in 2015 did the 41st ranked watt roster, then they were 3737 37 three straight years. And then they got 36 in 2019. And then 2020 there were 2927 sorry, 27 and 2020. And then there was about whether my formula in my formula, they were the next five out mirror number three. So there are 28 in my formula. Well now good my phones are 22 I believe they’re going to be the top 25 core team talent composite. And Wisconsin has been the team that has been maybe the closest it was in 2018. I want to say they went into the big 10 championship game with a 12 year old record. And they lost Ohio State. If they didn’t they went on to win the Orange Bowl over Miami. If they would have made it that year, they would have been the one non top 25 roster to make it so the fact that Wisconsin who’s been notoriously very
competitive with lesser talent is actually getting better guys. They actually have two five stars couple for for top 100 players they actually have better players and a very good culture group. Good well coached team, a team that has an identity. If there was a dark horse if they could somehow get through that season undefeated and they upset like an Ohio State in the big 10 they their dark horse team to the playoffs, they would fit in the top 25 so it actually would even make sense. So anyways, they’re number 22 number 21 South Carolina 68.75. They have to five stars 21 four stars and they For top 100 players, we have much to add to them. The roster didn’t get better at all this year, but they’re able to stay up there. So number 24 to state 70.9 points 05 stars 34 stars to top 100 players in the team talent composite era up until last season for the state had a top 10 roster every single season. In my formula the first year they had a top 10 roster. But my goodness, bad recruiting really bad attrition guys transfer it out headed to the NFL, they have lost just an unbelievable amount of talent to think that Florida State doesn’t have any five stars and only has to top 100 players in the whole entire roster. It’s just incredible. Florida State probably was one of the pioneers blue chip recruiting in the recruiting era. Um, like I said they probably pretty much lived in the top five top 10 of recruiting rankings. They haven’t last couple years, they’ve been 1922 and 23. And more so than that they’ve had absolutely horrendous attrition. Got I don’t even know how many guys transferred out. It’s probably been close to 30 so and blue chippers galore on top 100 guys, five stars transferring out five stars headed NFL it unfortunately started with Jimbo Fisher and Willie Taggart he got fired and then it eventually Novell had to take over that mass. It’s it’s not in a good position for a state is it’s gonna be that’s gonna be one that’s one rebuild. I’ll say that. Number 19. Tennessee 87.65 to five stars 33. four stars. Top 100 players they have five they’re another team absolutely been just shipwrecked by attrition. This cycle. They had one five star and for top 100 players that transferred out neatly after Jeromy Pruitt got fired. One day Morris went to Oklahoma keyshawn keys went to
Aaron gray a forced I went to Oklahoma, Henry toto Toto, who knows I hope he goes to Oregon. But let’s see where he goes. JJ Peterson. Good. Jared, Guantanamo went to Washington State. I think it came like six. I mean, their attrition has been really, really, really bad. And so their roster talent. They had a top 15 roster last year, they were actually on the upward swing. They had double digit top 100 players, they had five five stars. But obviously that rosters not looking as good and right now they’re trending the wrong direction, kind of like Florida State. Number 18. doom and gloom. We’re going to go the opposite direction, North Carolina at 8.2. When I did my first team terraform with two years ago, I did my top 25. And then I sketched out the next 10. I went back and looked at my sketching northcarolina was about number 33. And I think that was about where they were in the team talent deposit. They’re like 3132. Well, Matt Brown, he came in there and he is just recruited like a madman. He’s had to top 15 classes. He like he has to five stars 28 four stars. He has 10 Top 100 players on his roster. And his rosters now legitimate top 20 roster, it’s trending up. And they have maybe the best quarterback in college football and somehow a guy who’s a potential top 10 pick. And that’s a dark horse team to make playoffs. I mean they had they don’t play Clemson during the regular season. I just checked it out today. If they can somehow find a way to go undefeated and upset Clemson in the acc championship to North Carolina Tar Heels that’s team to watch out for a good quarterback play and some young talent now they flew young so I do wonder if they need another recruiting class because it’s only to top 15 classes. And another thing that there’s an article out there today that no team has won a national title without a top 10 recruiting class in a four year period. And I really think it’s it’s very difficult to learn about top 10 talent. So very, you’re probably gonna have to need a one or two top 10 recruiting classes or you need to be like Florida getting five, four or five stars from the portal and having a blast that five star level number 17. Washington 93.3 is are points to five stars 38 four stars and six top 100 players. Now Washington didn’t necessarily have the best recruiting class they were like 33rd 34 but they had a lot of guys come Back to the extra year of eligibility. They are three previous classes were all in the top 20. And you know, bringing back most of the guys and having three consecutive top 20 classes prior to this one, they were able to stay there pretty much similar to their talent looks pretty similar to last year really not much different. On last season, they had one less five star they probably had a couple more four stars. And they had about the same on top 100 players so they kept talent in place. And so this season is a big season for Washington because they did Chris Peterson left Jimmy lakes first recruiting cycle was not good. I mean 30 number 34 Ray classes is not going to get it done to competed for class. It isn’t and you have to have top 25 at least. So this is a big year because they bring back experience they bring back the 15th most production in college football. I think they bring their production. Some really good defensive players and go really quality offensive line and experienced offensive line. Washington’s gonna make noise and try and turn it back around on the recruiting trail and get things moving in the direction Chris Peterson have it they have to have video this year. I think this is the year that they pretty much have to have 910 wins. I’m number 16 Auburn 94.05 if to five stars 34, four stars and seven top 100 players, all those in it that got hit really bad with attrition. They had several former blue chippers that left the team transferred out after Gus balls on was let go. That’s to be expected the recruiting class was in great. It’s like number 30. So they took a step back. But that’s not bad. The rosters not bad. So they can they can come back, they can come back with a top 15 class this year and they’ll be back up there but not every class, um, and by arson better, because you’re not gospel along was not that bad. Anyways, number 15. Penn State 99.6 is a points they have won five star 43 four stars, and they have 10 Top 100 players. Hence they didn’t have a great class this year, it was 21. But actually it was pretty good. Like
this year there have been 2021 22 those composite scores on 247. If you know our two four sevens are pretty records work were much lower so can see had a class that normally wouldn’t even be in the top 25. When it came to composite scores. They also had some, some attrition they had guys now early NFL ELLs had a couple former top 100 guys that transferred out and they also the year before last Justin Jordan was a five star and Isaac Slade, who was a five star. So they they’ve trended a little broad direction because I did my formula and they’re in the top 10. My first two formulas and in the tech team towel composite. They’re in the top 10 two years ago, they’re just outside the top 10. This year, they’re still the top 15. But I think their roster maybe is not they need to turn around. They’re another Penn State Washington or two teams that they have to because they have coaches that are original likes newer, but so but still took over from a guy that’s pretty much an all time very good coach. And his first class wasn’t very good. So I think he needs to prove that he’s going to be a good coach too. So the recruiting up, Franklin, just a bad cycle. And then not a good year four and five season. If he can come back and win 910 games because he’s actually started this year’s recruiting cycle pretty good. He’s already in the top five, it’s early, but if he could win 910 games 11 games, he then I didn’t get recruited back to where Penn State was referring. Because I’ll tell you the as low as it was this year, it just was not a very good class. And even the class the year before was 15 which is not bad. That top 15 top of the class but they signed 27 guys, so that’s an awful lot of guys to sign. And so they signed a big class in the fish just tied to 15 and then they sign this year’s class and they were like outside the top 20 so he’s gonna need to turn that sucker around to be able to compete with like Ohio State number 14 Michigan 104 point 2535 stars 42, four stars, top 100 players seven, Michigan actually topped in class. So the last three classes have been top 10 Top 15 Top 10 so he’s actually horrible starting to turn around he kind of fell off he had that outside of top 20 class he adds a lot of transfers a lot of attrition by Michigan either guys leaving early for the draft or just transferring out losing high rated blue chip guys, but not as much attrition as couple guys come back for an extra year senior eligibility and a pretty good recruiting class Michigan They’re all good. They’re gonna be but they’re, they level it out. They think they stepped it. There did fall off. They didn’t have top they were ranked to my formula last year. I don’t have the numbers on me right now, but I think they’re 16 or 17. So they went up a little bit. So in the right direction, Notre Dame 13 114 point 615 Star 42, four stars, top 100 players 14. The good news. This is very similar numbers to just last year, this has been similar numbers to Notre Dame the last several years. The bad news, I think their names kind of hit a ceiling, they usually get one top 10 class, couple top 15 Top 20 class. But they’re never even close to top five. They don’t really get a bunch of big guys in the portal, they kind of go through the go with and they’re kind of always around slightly over 50% blue chip ratio. double digit top 100 players, single digit five stars, they really have had multiple five stars. They’re good team, Brian Kelly has made to a national championship he’s made to college football playoffs. He’s had I mean, his tenure there. He’s had five, six templates win seasons, he’s been the most successful coach at Notre Dame. The problem is is he gets blown out in the Rose Bowl, he gets blown out playoffs he gets blown out in Alabama or Clemson or wherever the good teams he plays. And I just don’t think he’s gonna be getting good enough guys to be able to change that. So I do really think Notre Dame’s kind of hit a ceiling and ceilings making college football playoffs, and usually not being very competitive. The numbers are just showing it, they don’t change and this your editor can take a step back, because they lost the second most production and all of the FPS, they lost the most production of any team in the power five, they only bring back 49% of the production. No one brings back
less production than Notre Dame. So Young roster talented, good but now it’s an experienced Notre Dame’s in my opinion as a team that I got penciled in for eight nine wins. Here. I stayed on top 10 because people don’t look at the data. They don’t see what’s out there. Look at the data, look at the numbers, added up yourself with the talent he has with you the experience he has. They’re gonna lose three or four games next year. Because they have to schedule they could lose a team that was the team that did Africa lose next year. I’m USC. I mean I’ve gone anyways. Number 12. Miami 117 point nine if to five stars 46. four stars 12 Top 100 players. Sneaky Good job that maybe is down in Miami. Seeking Good job. Top 15 class to play class last year, but it’s been the portal he’s been tremendous to work tiring Stevens former top 50 player from Georgia. Charles Randall, productive player for Oklahoma superstar guy. He had Jalen Phillips he’s gone out but a five star he says Bubba Bolden a former top 100 guys on his roster. He’s done really well. And then there’s been guys I’ve just been like under the radar. Quincy rochet. The Harrison kid from Tennessee they got this year and then Dr. King. They weren’t necessarily hiring recruits, but they were very good group of five players. And they’ve come in they’re doing good. He’s got a pretty good job with talent acquisition. He’s on the roster better. actually pretty much every process he’s been he’s been he’s been up at sea he got better this year. Maybe Alabama but there’s another word if that if the North Carolina but they’ll play Clemson they have an experienced quarterback if he’s healthy. At the injury we still receive you salivate. But if he’s healthy talent or Foster, we can schedule. Darkhorse. They bring back the third most production in all of college football 91% they bring 95% production on offense. It’s number one in college football production experience roster. Fairly talented roster experienced talented quarterback. You don’t know it could come down to the Yeah, could it could be a dark horse and ACC so I think it’s Clemson but keep an eye on them. Number 11 Texas 118 point 535 stars 47 four stars 11 Top 100 players still very good roster for Texas. They did have a number six rated roster according to my formula to tell composite actually haven’t been number five. They Tom Herman recruit create up to top five classes in the top 10 class. It was not the talent, unfortunately, didn’t win big games sometimes just didn’t look very good. And that impacts a lot of things. A lot of guys transferred out. They lost several former blue chip guys, Jalen green, a former top 100 corner jarius Jackson former top 100 quarterback kiante Ingram with four star running back several guys those transferred out. Brandon Eagles cadence Stern’s four top five star he had they both headed early whether they’re ready or not to the NFL, just because why not? Texas had been very good just decided early. He is gonna be a good player in the NFL. So long story short, they also got hit a little bit. They still very good roster they still have 50 blue chip guys on the roster. They are below Oklahoma and believe it or not. In the six years of the Teton composite Texas has had a better roster every single season than Oklahoma on paper. In regards to baseline talent. Oklahoma’s won six straight big 12 titles hasn’t mattered so our coaching matters well now taxes guess what you don’t have as good a roster Can people off the upset when the big 12 this year that we’ll see. I think it’ll take a couple years. I think Sarkeesian is gonna get a big head the best recruiting base in all of college football state of Texas. They’ll be fine, they’ll be fine Sarkeesian can do be good. If you do a good job. Have a good team. They’ll be fine. Number 10 USC 135.335 stars 43 four stars and 14 Top 100 players I already mentioned USC had a terrible glass last year number 64 number eight class this year done heck of a job in the last couple years in the portal landing. Bru McCoy former five star from Texas that’s the guy left Texas by the way chrissteele from Florida top 50 guy Ishmael softserve
from Alabama top 50 guy come on to Ingram guy then mentioned from taxes another guy from Texas xavion offered a four star guy so they were really good in the portal and that’s that’s kept that talent up there they’re gonna be top 10 again, because he’s never been outside the top 10 and they’re gonna forget roster now they only have 60 day or number 67 and returning production. And that’s gonna go into my next numbers not as good as good as the second worst in the back. 12 and that’s where I mean you’ll see that the best roster in the PAC 12 by a lot most years and have only won one one basketball title. They aren’t the best roster this year and they don’t bring back the least amount of experience other more than anyone other than Stanford so who say they still have talent number nine Oregon most talent in the PAC 12 they will have the most out this year. Barrel crystal balls recruit like a madman 140 1.8 a four or five stars 47 four stars, top 100 players 16 Oregon’s a team, they can get good play from the quarterback position. They have the talent, they have the conference, it’s not as good. They could possibly be a team that which should or could be in the playoffs. It’s definitely a probability guy to play the quarterback position. But if they do they have Ohio State game, but a state returns some of the least amount production talented, more experienced Oregon returns the ninth most production and all college football at 86%. So a productive experience talent roster. See I’m really interested I mean I’m like Oregon I’m interested in a game just the fact that talent on Ohio State’s undeniable but we’re gonna sell it and the more experienced if for some reason that game isn’t played Ohio State came on in Ohio State I have a tough time seeing that than being able to get through you know, I’ll say just a tough place to play and when I say is ridiculously talented, number eight Oklahoma just a little bit above Oregon 140 2.3 very close right there. Fluid point five points. seven five stars 49 four stars 16 Top 100 players really really like Oklahoma’s roster I think it’s I think it’s a very very good I’m more than anything it is five star blue chip quarterbacks Spencer rattlers gonna probably be one of the best quarterbacks next year blue chip receivers Jaden haselwood Thea wese Marvin Mims bridges, Trey john Bruce is probably signed a couple more this year. Billy Bowman is he playing wire series he put that uniform wide receiver or D back it was always good to have a good team next year they’re gonna have talent they actually have a better defense now they bring back top 40 production I can’t remember off the top my head these like 79% maybe. So pretty good. Pretty experienced our quarterback a lot of baseline talent. That’s roster and in that in the big 12 best team in the big 12 Yeah, they’re playoffs. They’re playoffs, for sure. They’ve already made it for it four times anyways. And I think they didn’t really be better team extremely competitive playoffs. Who else are they the team that they’re sitting around? We’re kind of at LSU and Clemson was for several other titles. I would consider where sometimes I’m saying I think it’s they could make playoffs they’re a dark horse but Oklahoma is a dark horse for the Nash title. I really their dark horse Nash title because they could have elite quarterback play and that can take a Nash title so their dark horse for Nash title,
will they win it time without I would still not know I would not say everything would probably put them at like third or fourth going into the season but their darkness number seven LSU and I moved to the wrong direction LSU 140 3.7565 stars 42 four stars 21 Top 100 players still great roster for LSU have had since transfers Eric Gilbert Gilbert a top 10 player for the 2020 class he transferred out. And you know, they had I just thought just just the immense amount. I mean, the mentally guys, they lost from that 2020 to 2009 2019. To early draft entry, I think they lost like seven or eight. And then they had like four guys opt out. So they literally lost 12 guys as early draft entries as the guys graduate, and another seven eight guys graduate. From the production they lost like 80% of production. I’m exaggerating. They lost the most production. I think one they lost some of the most production ever from one year to another for any team in college football history. I think it was something like 67% production. They brought back by far the least amount of production. They’re terrible year. Do you have to take you have to take that into consideration. They were playing guy of lotta guys who had ever played talented Yes, but not experienced. Bad coach, defensive coordinator her didn’t like that. Anyways, things are fixed up new OC new DC. They bring back more production. I think they’re the top 40 this year material production. And then the number seventh baseline roster. They should be better. Oh, you’ll be better. I don’t know how good they’ll be. It’s such a bad year last year, but they’ll be better they’ll be better. Six Florida 150 1.9575 stars 54 four stars and 17 Top 100 players. They waited five five stars. Two or six points worth and three were 5.5 math real quick math here 16.5 they 22.5 28.5 points in trance five star transfers. If you take that away they’re sitting just a little bit above taxes so they drop them to the number 10 team. They’ll be down near Texas. But instead they’ve done such an amazing job in the portal. They have the number six roster be based upon baseline count. Now we’ll see if those guys they were five stars and they did have to transfer that’s not always a great thing. On Justin shorter and Rosalyn guard did do a whole lot last year. So so far they have not necessarily lived up to that five star rating. And so we’ll see they also thought it doesn’t return a lot production there. They were in the bottom bottom fourth of returning production. There interesting deal. I don’t think they’re a playoff team next year. I don’t think too much talent. I think some of the guys are five stars transferred and I don’t think they’re just they played that level. I don’t think Florida is necessarily as good as their baseline. He’s a good coach. He’s led them to three straight near six bowls 17 sec title last title game last year. We’ll see. I think that they might have I just don’t think it was good. I would definitely put them in like I actually LCB bed and I should just say a number Texas a&m. Five 145 44.5555 stars 49 four stars 21 Top 100 players. um you know I’d want to go too long here so I’m gonna make this a little more brief. Jimbo Fisher has recruited amazing three top 10 classes in a row. That roster when he took over was outside of the top 15 in regards to talent, bad recruiting classes attrition, Kevin someone’s program definitely falling apart a little bit. Well, he turned around, crude like a madman had a 10 one season one the Orange Bowl was number 14 in the finally people I am setting the right direction. Now they are young. They’re again the bottom fourth and returning production, but they have bikes I think I trust that roster a little better than Florida. I think E and m is better, but we’ll see. New quarterback
some new guys it’s a key position. So we’ll see but I like the direction they’re moving forward. Number four is Clemson. 170 1.6 11 five stars 42 four stars, and 23 Top 100 players. clemson actually, is more when it comes to just straight blue chip players. They’re more in the realm of Texas, Florida, Oregon, Oklahoma LSU. But it’s 11 five stars that just put them about 20 points ahead. And that’s really where their advantage lies. And Clemson just continues to win no matter how they’ve had this last year was our first top tip five roster that they had. I mean in the national hockey game one year with the number 13 roster so they always have the best based on talent they’ve done well and they’re now recruiting better and they’ll get in top five talent so Bravo Sweeney he’s probably gonna still be playing in the college football playoff every year. chalk it up. Number three Ohio State to a 7.6 14 five stars 50 to four stars 33 Top 100 players loaded roster, nothing more to say now they do only return 55% of production. That’s the 100 and 21st ranked model production that is bottom in the big 10 and that is what bottom for the power of five. Ohio State it will be on next year but they will be talented. Interested in that Oregon game number to Georgia to 19.7 575 stars most of any team of 48 four stars. Top 100 players 34 Yep, that’s right. That’s right. Kirby smart. Hey, he’s had top five rosters pretty much every single year since he’s been there. His results have been good. They only won one sec title and they made it to the national title last Alabama. They should have won that game. Since then. They haven’t been back. They’ve not want us to tie the tie the last three seasons. He’s a great girl because he has the talent. Georgia has the people to win the national title there. They have the people to beat Alabama. They’re the one team that really does love anybody. But you know what? Gotta do it. Kansas recruit. Number one Alabama 230 9.5 1545 stars 64 four stars. They have 79 blue chip players. The whole team is almost all four and five stars. They barely have a three star on their whole entire roster like 10 anyways 100 players 38 that’s the most
Alabama’s always gonna be guys. Sorry guys. Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State those three clubs in those four. I mean, just based upon title and stuff. I think we’re gonna walk is those four, you put 123 and four and you can’t go wrong. You’re just hoping if you’re like, I’m tired of the guys again. Go there every year. I’m trying to guys get all the blue chippers. You’re looking in that five? Your best opportunities in that five to 10 range. If I’m looking at Ross talent. It’s a&m Florida, LSU, Oklahoma, Oregon, and USC. Thing is a&m at LSU they don’t play in the same conference as Florida, Florida LSU a&m, they’ll play the same conference as Georgia and Alabama. one maybe two only in seven years left only once is two teams in same conference made it sorry, ACC did they do that ACC so twice, seven years, two teams once an ACC and once I still think and this was a year honestly If it would have been a normal here probably by that happen who knows what was bad but it was not an ACC to So that was another weird thing but anyways most the time it’s not too It’s definitely not three teams three teams aren’t going to make it so Oregon USC and Oklahoma are probably your the teams of the best talent if they can really get amazing player the quarterback position get in the playoffs. They’re probably kind of the Dark Horse national like playoffs you could have goals much Miami could be a dark horse against the North Carolina know the Washington a yes for more as far back position but backwards to play for the national title baby in Oklahoma maybe in Oregon. He was seized in so little with talent that had I just have a hard time thinking probably Oregon, Oklahoma honestly or your dark horse because they talked in talent. It pulls out a quarterback position I chose Oklahoma they have Spencer rattler. Oh we don’t know but they can also Oklahoma is not playing Ohio State for state nor conference I don’t know who will pull in place but I don’t think they have anyone that is I don’t know what they’re not conference probably they have anyone that’s like well that’s that’s a that’s a ring dare I I think they might have I forgot I did see someone who every plan is a tenancy or tenancy Come on give me a break I leave everybody home I think it is tenancy are gonna be Oklahoma so I just told me that they have probably the better chances here if I was going to go dark horse I picked three or four one of Alabama Georgia game clubs in state and then I would probably take Oklahoma but then Oregon to be one they just have to play they have to play Ohio State and when the rest of the game so anyways guys, that’s my team tell formula. The sports cast dotnet team talent formula 2021 I update it when players leave, I update it and updating the daily montage of it. Go check it out guys, go leave a review on iTunes. And this took longer than I thought but I thought it was a pretty insightful formula that I provided to the public and go share it go like it and go comment on it guys.
Transcribed by https://otter.ai
Santiago Leon is the Founder and CEO of the Sports Cast. He covers NFL, NBA, and world soccer. He’s also founder of sleon productions, which he specializes in technology and serves clients with solutions to make their business grow.